NBA games

BKN @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
111–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN27203034111
IND43323325133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home IND
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 29 22 1 2
Trendon Watford 34 21 2 0
Mikal Bridges S 29 19 0 6
Lonnie Walker IV 20 14 7 3
Nic Claxton S 26 7 11 0
Dennis Schroder S 21 7 3 4
Day'Ron Sharpe 13 6 11 0
Jalen Wilson 24 6 1 1
Dorian Finney-Smith S 23 5 4 2
Noah Clowney 22 4 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 27 27 4 13
Jalen Smith 16 17 10 0
Pascal Siakam S 24 15 6 2
Obi Toppin 19 14 4 3
Aaron Nesmith S 25 11 4 0
T.J. McConnell 18 10 4 8
Myles Turner S 14 9 6 0
Isaiah Jackson 14 8 3 0
Andrew Nembhard S 24 7 2 6
Doug McDermott 19 6 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mikal Bridges · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Mikal Bridges makes 11-foot two point shot (Cam Thomas assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cam Thomas BKN
13%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
13%
3 Myles Turner IND
11%
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND
11%
5 Dennis Schroder BKN
10%
6 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
7 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
8 Mikal Bridges BKN
8%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
10 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
34%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cam Thomas BKN 25.8 4.8 4.9
2 Pascal Siakam IND 24.1 10.2 3.9
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.7 4.7 9.4
4 Dennis Schroder BKN 17.4 3.9 5.7
5 Mikal Bridges BKN 16.9 4.5 3.7
6 Myles Turner IND 15.0 5.7 1.7
7 T.J. McConnell IND 13.2 3.2 4.6
8 Cameron Johnson BKN 12.5 3.9 2.0
9 Nic Claxton BKN 12.4 10.6 2.1
10 Andrew Nembhard IND 12.0 2.8 3.0
11 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.3 4.0 1.8
12 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 8.2 4.3 1.7
13 Trendon Watford BKN 7.8 3.3 1.0
14 Jalen Smith IND 7.3 5.0 1.0
15 Obi Toppin IND 6.4 3.2 1.3
16 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 5.9 5.0 1.3
17 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 5.9 1.9 2.1
18 Ben Sheppard IND 5.4 1.7 1.4
19 Jalen Wilson BKN 5.0 2.4 0.8
20 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.2 3.7 0.7
21 Doug McDermott IND 4.1 1.1 0.9
22 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 3.8 1.9 0.7
23 Noah Clowney BKN 3.4 2.6 0.7
24 Jarace Walker IND 2.9 1.8 0.9
25 Isaiah Wong IND 2.5 1.1 0.9
26 Kendall Brown IND 1.7 0.8 0.4
27 James Johnson IND 1.4 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.