NBA games

MEM @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
110–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM22224125110
DET29283318108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home DET
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 34 40 7 3
Luke Kennard S 36 19 3 8
Brandon Clarke 23 15 7 0
Jake LaRavia 25 12 4 2
GG Jackson S 30 11 4 4
Lamar Stevens 23 7 3 1
Jordan Goodwin 24 4 13 5
Santi Aldama S 23 2 3 2
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 21 0 0 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 34 36 4 8
Jaden Ivey S 35 20 3 6
Chimezie Metu 28 17 8 0
James Wiseman 28 10 10 0
Tosan Evbuomwan S 35 10 5 2
Malachi Flynn 14 9 2 0
Evan Fournier 29 5 3 4
Jared Rhoden 13 1 1 1
Jalen Duren S 5 0 1 1
Troy Brown Jr. S 18 0 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
15%
2 Jalen Duren DET
10%
3 Jaden Ivey DET
9%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
8%
5 GG Jackson MEM
7%
6 Ziaire Williams MEM
7%
7 Santi Aldama MEM
6%
8 Jake LaRavia MEM
6%
9 Luke Kennard MEM
6%
10 Stanley Umude DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
33%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 25.8 5.7 8.6
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 21.7 6.3 3.7
3 GG Jackson MEM 19.5 4.5 2.6
4 Jaden Ivey DET 16.6 4.1 4.7
5 Jalen Duren DET 15.4 11.3 2.7
6 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 14.2 3.6 5.0
7 Santi Aldama MEM 12.8 6.4 2.5
8 Jake LaRavia MEM 12.5 3.8 2.3
9 Luke Kennard MEM 12.4 2.9 4.6
10 Marcus Sasser DET 10.4 2.5 4.4
11 Lamar Stevens MEM 10.3 3.9 1.3
12 Jordan Goodwin MEM 10.2 5.5 4.7
13 James Wiseman DET 10.2 7.4 1.6
14 Ziaire Williams MEM 9.7 3.4 1.8
15 Evan Fournier DET 6.9 1.8 1.9
16 Tosan Evbuomwan DET 6.4 3.1 1.0
17 Chimezie Metu DET 5.7 3.2 1.5
18 Malachi Flynn DET 5.5 1.8 1.3
19 DeJon Jarreau MEM 5.1 4.2 2.4
20 Troy Brown Jr. DET 4.4 2.3 1.0
21 Stanley Umude DET 4.4 1.8 0.6
22 Zavier Simpson MEM 3.9 2.1 3.2
23 Buddy Boeheim DET 3.7 1.1 0.6
24 Maozinha Pereira MEM 3.6 3.2 0.5
25 Jared Rhoden DET 3.1 1.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.