NBA games

BOS @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
118–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS30293623118
CHA32212625104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home CHA
93% 7%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 34 25 10 4
Sam Hauser 24 25 5 0
Kristaps Porzingis S 30 20 7 5
Derrick White S 36 19 9 5
Al Horford S 25 15 5 3
Payton Pritchard 28 7 3 5
Luke Kornet 13 4 4 1
Jrue Holiday S 30 2 5 2
Oshae Brissett 13 1 2 2
Xavier Tillman 5 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 43 26 11 8
Grant Williams S 33 23 7 2
Brandon Miller S 40 19 5 2
Vasilije Micic S 37 13 2 9
Davis Bertans 23 8 1 1
Tre Mann S 26 4 4 4
Marques Bolden 15 4 5 0
Nick Smith Jr. 1 3 0 0
Aleksej Pokusevski 16 3 4 2
JT Thor 5 1 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kristaps Porzingis · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Kristaps Porzingis makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
22%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
17%
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
12%
4 Tre Mann CHA
11%
5 Brandon Miller CHA
10%
6 Vasilije Micic CHA
9%
7 Derrick White BOS
9%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
9 Al Horford BOS
0%
10 Sam Hauser BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
33%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 28.0 7.0 5.9
2 Miles Bridges CHA 21.3 6.5 3.8
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 20.4 7.6 2.5
4 Derrick White BOS 18.8 5.8 6.4
5 Brandon Miller CHA 17.5 4.6 3.0
6 Grant Williams CHA 15.3 5.0 3.0
7 Vasilije Micic CHA 14.4 3.0 6.2
8 Tre Mann CHA 13.9 4.4 5.2
9 Payton Pritchard BOS 13.0 3.3 5.2
10 Jrue Holiday BOS 12.5 4.3 5.7
11 Al Horford BOS 11.7 5.8 2.1
12 Sam Hauser BOS 10.9 3.9 1.6
13 Davis Bertans CHA 7.0 2.1 1.2
14 Aleksej Pokusevski CHA 6.2 3.8 1.7
15 Luke Kornet BOS 5.5 5.1 1.5
16 Xavier Tillman BOS 4.0 3.3 1.0
17 Oshae Brissett BOS 4.0 3.0 0.8
18 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.4 1.3 0.9
19 JT Thor CHA 3.3 1.6 0.7
20 Bryce McGowens CHA 3.3 2.0 0.7
21 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 2.6 1.1 0.8
22 Amari Bailey CHA 2.0 0.9 0.5
23 Jaden Springer BOS 1.9 1.4 0.4
24 Marques Bolden CHA 1.4 1.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.