NBA games

UTAH @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
106–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH23292529106
SAC27293932127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home SAC
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brice Sensabaugh S 34 22 4 3
Collin Sexton S 29 22 1 4
Taylor Hendricks S 28 18 3 1
Keyonte George S 37 18 2 2
Micah Potter 20 8 4 0
Walker Kessler S 32 6 8 3
Kris Dunn 27 5 5 7
Omer Yurtseven 12 4 4 1
Johnny Juzang 21 3 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keegan Murray S 35 25 4 3
De'Aaron Fox S 36 24 6 12
Harrison Barnes S 29 24 2 2
Domantas Sabonis S 34 17 11 6
Trey Lyles 19 11 4 3
Davion Mitchell 21 8 5 3
Sasha Vezenkov 10 5 2 1
Keon Ellis S 27 5 8 3
Chris Duarte 2 3 0 0
Kessler Edwards 10 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Harrison Barnes · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Harrison Barnes makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Keegan Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
15%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
15%
3 Harrison Barnes SAC
12%
4 Keyonte George UTAH
12%
5 Keegan Murray SAC
11%
6 Collin Sexton UTAH
10%
7 Taylor Hendricks UTAH
8%
8 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH
8%
9 Keon Ellis SAC
7%
10 Walker Kessler UTAH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
31%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 25.1 5.8 6.8
2 Collin Sexton UTAH 23.8 4.1 6.3
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 20.0 12.7 8.4
4 Keyonte George UTAH 17.9 3.8 5.0
5 Keegan Murray SAC 16.0 6.0 2.1
6 Harrison Barnes SAC 13.8 4.0 2.0
7 Keon Ellis SAC 10.2 3.8 1.9
8 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 9.1 6.2 1.0
9 Walker Kessler UTAH 7.6 8.1 1.1
10 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 7.1 3.8 2.7
11 Johnny Juzang UTAH 6.6 2.2 1.1
12 Kris Dunn UTAH 6.5 3.3 2.8
13 Davion Mitchell SAC 6.4 1.8 1.6
14 Chris Duarte SAC 5.8 2.5 1.0
15 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 5.3 1.8 0.8
16 Trey Lyles SAC 4.9 2.8 0.9
17 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 4.5 1.9 1.7
18 Alex Len SAC 4.0 3.0 1.0
19 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 3.6 2.8 0.3
20 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.6 1.5 0.8
21 Micah Potter UTAH 3.3 2.3 0.5
22 Luka Samanic UTAH 2.7 2.2 0.4
23 JaVale McGee SAC 2.7 1.7 0.5
24 Kira Lewis Jr. UTAH 2.2 0.9 0.7
25 Colby Jones SAC 2.1 1.3 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.