NBA games

GS @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
117–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS27253728117
SA34262132113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home SA
71% 29%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 33 33 1 8
Draymond Green S 32 21 6 11
Klay Thompson S 29 13 2 3
Brandin Podziemski 24 12 7 4
Moses Moody 22 10 4 1
Chris Paul 22 9 4 2
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 28 7 7 3
Kevon Looney 9 4 2 1
Gary Payton II 20 4 3 1
Andrew Wiggins S 22 4 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 31 32 9 5
Cedi Osman S 36 18 2 1
Zach Collins 16 13 8 2
Tre Jones S 32 12 5 6
Malaki Branham S 31 12 3 4
Sandro Mamukelashvili 25 10 11 2
Julian Champagnie S 38 9 5 4
Devonte' Graham 18 6 1 2
Blake Wesley 12 1 1 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Free Throw (1 pts) · 10:51 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
17%
2 Andrew Wiggins GS
13%
3 Victor Wembanyama SA
13%
4 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
11%
5 Tre Jones SA
9%
6 Draymond Green GS
9%
7 Julian Champagnie SA
9%
8 Klay Thompson GS
9%
9 Chris Paul GS
9%
10 Kevon Looney GS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
48%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 27.6 11.4 5.6
2 Stephen Curry GS 23.1 4.5 5.0
3 Klay Thompson GS 18.7 3.3 2.8
4 Andrew Wiggins GS 15.9 6.1 2.0
5 Tre Jones SA 12.9 3.8 6.1
6 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 11.8 8.2 1.7
7 Chris Paul GS 10.6 4.5 5.9
8 Zach Collins SA 8.6 4.4 1.9
9 Draymond Green GS 8.3 7.5 5.5
10 Brandin Podziemski GS 8.1 5.2 2.5
11 Julian Champagnie SA 8.1 2.7 1.4
12 Moses Moody GS 6.9 2.8 1.1
13 Malaki Branham SA 6.3 1.8 1.4
14 Cedi Osman SA 5.3 2.7 1.2
15 Blake Wesley SA 5.2 2.2 1.8
16 Gary Payton II GS 4.2 1.9 1.3
17 Kevon Looney GS 3.8 3.6 0.8
18 Lester Quinones GS 3.6 1.7 0.7
19 David Duke Jr. SA 3.5 1.2 0.8
20 Jamaree Bouyea SA 3.0 1.7 1.3
21 Jerome Robinson GS 2.8 1.2 0.6
22 Devonte' Graham SA 2.6 1.2 0.5
23 Sidy Cissoko SA 2.5 1.6 0.7
24 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 2.4 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.