NBA games

CHI @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
109–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI33312025109
MIN22322522101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home MIN
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 39 27 2 8
Alex Caruso S 35 21 5 5
Nikola Vucevic S 33 19 8 6
Coby White S 41 17 5 3
Ayo Dosunmu S 36 13 3 6
Andre Drummond 17 6 9 0
Torrey Craig 13 3 4 0
Javonte Green 16 3 6 1
Dalen Terry 11 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 36 22 11 5
Rudy Gobert S 38 19 10 1
Mike Conley S 29 19 1 7
Naz Reid S 31 14 3 4
Monte Morris 16 9 2 1
Jaden McDaniels S 33 8 6 3
Kyle Anderson 21 5 1 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 22 5 2 2
Jordan McLaughlin 14 0 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden McDaniels · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Jaden McDaniels makes 25-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
14%
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI
12%
3 Coby White CHI
11%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
5 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
10%
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
7 Mike Conley MIN
9%
8 Naz Reid MIN
8%
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
10 Alex Caruso CHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
32%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI 25.9 5.4 4.3
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.1 6.7 6.5
3 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 19.2 3.6 4.7
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 18.8 10.0 3.3
5 Coby White CHI 18.7 4.4 5.1
6 Naz Reid MIN 18.0 6.7 2.8
7 Mike Conley MIN 16.1 3.0 5.5
8 Rudy Gobert MIN 14.6 12.1 2.1
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.9 4.7 1.6
10 Alex Caruso CHI 12.3 4.3 4.5
11 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 10.5 3.0 2.2
12 Kyle Anderson MIN 10.2 4.6 5.5
13 Andre Drummond CHI 7.7 8.5 0.8
14 Torrey Craig CHI 6.7 2.8 1.3
15 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 6.4 2.4 2.1
16 Monte Morris MIN 5.4 1.5 2.1
17 Luka Garza MIN 5.3 1.7 0.7
18 Dalen Terry CHI 4.7 2.7 1.5
19 Onuralp Bitim CHI 4.6 2.0 0.9
20 Jevon Carter CHI 4.3 1.2 1.1
21 T.J. Warren MIN 3.8 1.7 0.9
22 Leonard Miller MIN 2.8 1.5 0.7
23 Josh Minott MIN 2.7 1.5 0.6
24 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 2.6 1.3 0.6
25 Terry Taylor CHI 2.2 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.