NBA games

DAL @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
125–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL36302534125
HOU24212834107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home HOU
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 35 47 12 7
Kyrie Irving S 34 24 3 7
Dante Exum 18 13 1 2
P.J. Washington S 28 12 6 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. 24 9 5 0
Jaden Hardy 16 8 2 1
Daniel Gafford S 22 6 4 3
Derrick Jones Jr. S 21 2 5 1
Dereck Lively II 13 2 2 0
Maxi Kleber 20 2 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jabari Smith Jr. S 36 28 7 2
Aaron Holiday 23 16 5 2
Cam Whitmore 22 13 5 1
Jalen Green S 31 12 6 5
Jock Landale 19 11 4 1
Fred VanVleet S 32 10 2 7
Amen Thompson S 20 8 7 1
Reggie Bullock Jr. 11 3 1 1
Jeff Green 5 2 0 0
Jae'Sean Tate 8 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jabari Smith Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Jabari Smith Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dillon Brooks assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
14%
2 Daniel Gafford DAL
13%
3 Kyrie Irving DAL
12%
4 Fred VanVleet HOU
10%
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
6 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
7 Dillon Brooks HOU
9%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
8%
9 Jalen Green HOU
7%
10 Luka Doncic DAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
25%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
29%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 29.3 10.1 9.1
2 Jalen Green HOU 27.7 6.6 4.5
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.8 4.5 6.3
4 Fred VanVleet HOU 19.5 4.2 8.6
5 Amen Thompson HOU 16.3 9.3 2.9
6 Daniel Gafford DAL 13.4 8.3 1.9
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.2 6.6 1.8
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.4 3.3 1.9
9 Cam Whitmore HOU 10.8 3.8 1.0
10 Jock Landale HOU 10.0 5.6 1.8
11 P.J. Washington DAL 9.7 6.2 1.2
12 Dereck Lively II DAL 8.7 6.5 1.0
13 Jeff Green HOU 8.6 3.1 1.0
14 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 8.3 2.5 1.9
15 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 8.0 2.7 1.1
16 Dante Exum DAL 6.9 2.2 2.5
17 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.5 1.6 1.7
18 Maxi Kleber DAL 4.2 2.5 1.2
19 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.0 2.4 0.9
20 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.5 2.7 0.6
21 Jaden Hardy DAL 3.4 0.8 0.8
22 Markieff Morris DAL 2.4 0.9 0.3
23 A.J. Lawson DAL 1.9 0.9 0.2
24 Nate Williams HOU 1.8 1.0 0.3
25 Boban Marjanovic HOU 1.8 1.7 0.3
26 Dwight Powell DAL 1.4 0.8 0.4
27 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 1.1 0.8 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.