NBA games

OKC @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
113–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC17332538113
NY22243927112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home NY
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Williams S 34 33 4 8
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 35 19 2 3
Josh Giddey S 31 16 13 12
Jaylin Williams 19 8 8 2
Kenrich Williams 10 7 2 1
Cason Wallace 16 6 2 0
Isaiah Joe 16 6 2 0
Chet Holmgren S 26 5 5 0
Gordon Hayward 11 5 1 0
Luguentz Dort S 29 4 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 35 30 2 7
Miles McBride S 46 19 4 3
Isaiah Hartenstein S 29 17 12 5
Donte DiVincenzo S 40 15 1 2
Josh Hart S 45 13 15 6
Precious Achiuwa 22 8 9 0
Alec Burks 12 5 2 1
Bojan Bogdanovic 11 5 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Giddey · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Josh Giddey makes driving layup (Luguentz Dort assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
2 Josh Giddey OKC
12%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
4 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
10%
5 Josh Hart NY
10%
6 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
9%
7 Aaron Wiggins OKC
8%
8 Donte DiVincenzo NY
7%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
10 Miles McBride NY
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
35%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 29.9 3.8 7.4
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 26.9 5.4 5.9
3 Jalen Williams OKC 21.3 4.7 4.9
4 Josh Giddey OKC 18.9 6.6 5.2
5 Donte DiVincenzo NY 18.1 4.5 3.0
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.2 8.5 1.7
7 Miles McBride NY 13.1 2.7 2.7
8 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 10.7 8.2 2.7
9 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.0 2.9 1.8
10 Josh Hart NY 9.0 10.3 6.0
11 Cason Wallace OKC 8.8 2.8 1.7
12 Precious Achiuwa NY 8.3 7.6 1.6
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.1 2.1 1.4
14 Bojan Bogdanovic NY 7.0 1.8 1.4
15 Aaron Wiggins OKC 6.6 2.4 1.3
16 Gordon Hayward OKC 5.7 2.1 1.9
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.3 3.9 1.2
18 Alec Burks NY 4.9 1.4 0.7
19 Mamadi Diakite NY 4.6 2.2 0.6
20 Shake Milton NY 4.2 2.4 1.0
21 Jaylin Williams OKC 3.8 3.1 1.2
22 Jericho Sims NY 2.7 3.6 0.7
23 Bismack Biyombo OKC 2.4 2.4 0.9
24 Mike Muscala OKC 2.4 1.4 0.6
25 DaQuan Jeffries NY 1.9 0.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.