NBA games

MIA @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
119–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA29372924119
WSH29302127107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home WSH
78% 22%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Terry Rozier S 35 27 4 2
Bam Adebayo S 37 22 10 5
Jimmy Butler III S 35 17 7 4
Nikola Jovic S 22 12 8 4
Haywood Highsmith 29 10 4 0
Delon Wright 21 9 1 4
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 19 9 1 2
Duncan Robinson S 28 6 3 1
Thomas Bryant 10 4 3 0
Jamal Cain 1 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 34 22 4 8
Anthony Gill 20 18 4 0
Deni Avdija S 38 15 9 6
Jared Butler 23 14 2 7
Corey Kispert S 41 13 2 3
Marvin Bagley III S 26 12 10 0
Jules Bernard 8 6 1 1
Johnny Davis 19 4 5 0
Tristan Vukcevic 13 3 2 2
Patrick Baldwin Jr. S 18 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Marvin Bagley III · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:41 Q1
"Marvin Bagley III makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA
12%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
3 Jordan Poole WSH
11%
4 Terry Rozier MIA
10%
5 Deni Avdija WSH
10%
6 Marvin Bagley III WSH
10%
7 Richaun Holmes WSH
8%
8 Duncan Robinson MIA
7%
9 Corey Kispert WSH
7%
10 Nikola Jovic MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
28%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jordan Poole WSH 20.2 3.5 5.7
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 20.1 11.3 4.0
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA 19.9 5.0 5.6
4 Deni Avdija WSH 19.8 9.5 4.1
5 Terry Rozier MIA 19.4 4.7 3.7
6 Corey Kispert WSH 14.8 3.7 1.7
7 Marvin Bagley III WSH 14.2 8.1 1.5
8 Duncan Robinson MIA 14.0 3.5 2.9
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 11.0 3.8 2.6
10 Richaun Holmes WSH 9.1 7.5 1.2
11 Nikola Jovic MIA 8.3 3.7 1.9
12 Thomas Bryant MIA 8.3 5.1 0.9
13 Kevin Love MIA 8.1 5.9 1.8
14 Jared Butler WSH 7.4 2.5 4.0
15 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.0 2.8 1.3
16 Patty Mills MIA 6.2 1.8 1.8
17 Delon Wright MIA 5.8 2.3 2.0
18 Anthony Gill WSH 5.4 2.2 1.1
19 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 4.5 3.4 1.1
20 Jules Bernard WSH 4.5 1.7 1.1
21 Johnny Davis WSH 4.5 1.9 1.1
22 Jamal Cain MIA 4.0 1.7 0.9
23 Alondes Williams MIA 3.0 1.1 0.4
24 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 2.9 1.9 0.6
25 Cole Swider MIA 2.6 0.8 0.4
26 Orlando Robinson MIA 2.0 1.7 0.6
27 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 1.9 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.