NBA games

PHI @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
135–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI35363034135
TOR27283827120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home TOR
73% 27%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 37 32 7 3
Cameron Payne S 38 24 1 3
Tobias Harris S 30 21 9 3
Nicolas Batum 28 19 6 2
Buddy Hield 22 13 3 3
Kyle Lowry S 38 11 1 10
Paul Reed 18 9 2 0
Mo Bamba S 13 4 4 1
KJ Martin 10 2 5 2
Jeff Dowtin Jr. 5 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gary Trent Jr. S 32 23 2 2
Jordan Nwora 30 19 4 3
Bruce Brown S 34 18 4 6
Kelly Olynyk S 32 18 5 11
Gradey Dick S 31 12 0 2
Javon Freeman-Liberty S 31 11 7 2
Jalen McDaniels 18 8 4 1
Kobi Simmons 16 6 1 3
Mouhamadou Gueye 7 3 1 1
Garrett Temple 9 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mo Bamba · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Mo Bamba makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Kyle Lowry assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
14%
2 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
12%
3 Tobias Harris PHI
11%
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
11%
5 Kelly Olynyk TOR
11%
6 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
7 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR
8%
8 Mo Bamba PHI
8%
9 Kyle Lowry PHI
8%
10 Gradey Dick TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
33%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.0 3.6 6.3
2 RJ Barrett TOR 21.4 5.2 4.9
3 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 19.8 4.1 2.4
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 17.5 6.7 2.8
5 Kelly Olynyk TOR 16.2 6.0 6.0
6 Tobias Harris PHI 16.0 7.3 2.7
7 Gradey Dick TOR 12.8 3.1 2.3
8 Bruce Brown TOR 11.4 3.8 3.6
9 Kyle Lowry PHI 10.5 3.0 3.6
10 Buddy Hield PHI 9.7 3.0 1.9
11 Jordan Nwora TOR 9.0 3.8 1.6
12 Cameron Payne PHI 8.7 2.1 2.6
13 Paul Reed PHI 8.5 7.2 1.4
14 Mo Bamba PHI 8.1 6.3 1.4
15 Nicolas Batum PHI 7.0 4.7 1.9
16 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR 6.8 3.0 1.8
17 Chris Boucher TOR 5.4 3.3 0.6
18 Ricky Council IV PHI 5.1 1.5 0.8
19 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 4.7 1.2 1.8
20 KJ Martin PHI 3.6 2.5 0.8
21 Jalen McDaniels TOR 3.3 2.0 0.9
22 Garrett Temple TOR 3.3 1.8 1.0
23 D.J. Wilson PHI 2.9 1.3 0.7
24 Mouhamadou Gueye TOR 2.8 2.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.