NBA games

LAC @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
130–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC31362637130
CHA25302736118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home CHA
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 40 41 7 4
Ivica Zubac S 33 24 12 1
Kawhi Leonard S 37 23 5 2
Norman Powell 26 16 1 1
Russell Westbrook 20 11 5 4
Terance Mann S 25 7 3 2
James Harden S 36 6 6 10
Amir Coffey 16 2 0 2
Mason Plumlee 7 0 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 43 33 7 3
Brandon Miller S 40 22 6 4
Grant Williams 33 18 5 5
Davis Bertans 25 15 2 1
Vasilije Micic S 35 10 5 13
Tre Mann S 26 9 2 5
Nick Richards S 25 8 2 0
JT Thor 7 3 1 1
Bryce McGowens 6 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
16%
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC
11%
3 Nick Richards CHA
10%
4 Ivica Zubac LAC
10%
5 Paul George LAC
10%
6 Brandon Miller CHA
10%
7 Tre Mann CHA
9%
8 Terance Mann LAC
8%
9 Vasilije Micic CHA
8%
10 James Harden LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
19%
Layup
46%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paul George LAC 23.5 4.9 4.1
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 22.7 6.2 3.5
3 Miles Bridges CHA 22.4 6.8 3.9
4 Brandon Miller CHA 18.0 4.6 3.0
5 Norman Powell LAC 15.6 3.2 1.8
6 Vasilije Micic CHA 14.8 2.9 6.3
7 James Harden LAC 14.2 5.3 9.4
8 Grant Williams CHA 14.1 4.9 2.7
9 Tre Mann CHA 13.4 4.5 5.3
10 Terance Mann LAC 10.6 3.2 1.3
11 Ivica Zubac LAC 10.5 8.6 1.5
12 Nick Richards CHA 10.0 9.2 1.2
13 Russell Westbrook LAC 9.0 2.9 3.4
14 Davis Bertans CHA 7.6 2.1 1.5
15 Amir Coffey LAC 7.5 2.7 1.6
16 Bones Hyland LAC 5.1 1.4 2.4
17 Daniel Theis LAC 4.0 2.9 0.8
18 Mason Plumlee LAC 3.7 3.0 0.8
19 Brandon Boston LAC 3.5 1.6 0.4
20 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.4 2.8 0.8
21 JT Thor CHA 3.2 1.5 0.7
22 Bryce McGowens CHA 3.1 1.8 0.7
23 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 3.0 1.3 0.8
24 Amari Bailey CHA 2.3 1.1 0.6
25 Xavier Moon LAC 2.0 1.2 0.7
26 Marques Bolden CHA 1.3 1.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.