NBA games

LAL @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
116–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL31362326116
BKN11333525104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home BKN
84% 16%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 37 40 7 5
Anthony Davis S 35 24 14 0
Rui Hachimura S 37 20 10 4
D'Angelo Russell S 32 18 6 6
Austin Reaves S 35 12 7 6
Gabe Vincent 14 2 1 1
Max Christie 3 0 0 0
Spencer Dinwiddie 21 0 2 2
Colin Castleton 6 0 1 0
Cam Reddish 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 35 30 2 6
Trendon Watford 29 15 8 2
Dennis Schroder S 28 14 3 3
Mikal Bridges S 38 13 3 4
Nic Claxton S 26 10 6 2
Dorian Finney-Smith S 25 5 3 1
Cameron Johnson 20 5 3 0
Day'Ron Sharpe 9 4 1 1
Noah Clowney 15 3 6 0
Jalen Wilson 8 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Davis · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Anthony Davis makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
13%
2 Cam Thomas BKN
11%
3 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
4 Dennis Schroder BKN
9%
5 Rui Hachimura LAL
9%
6 Nic Claxton BKN
9%
7 LeBron James LAL
9%
8 D'Angelo Russell LAL
8%
9 Mikal Bridges BKN
7%
10 Cameron Johnson BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
30%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 26.6 8.9 9.4
2 Cam Thomas BKN 25.5 4.8 4.7
3 Anthony Davis LAL 22.2 13.0 3.7
4 D'Angelo Russell LAL 20.3 3.9 6.8
5 Austin Reaves LAL 19.3 6.2 6.2
6 Mikal Bridges BKN 18.7 4.5 4.1
7 Dennis Schroder BKN 18.3 3.8 6.7
8 Cameron Johnson BKN 15.2 3.6 2.1
9 Rui Hachimura LAL 15.0 5.2 1.6
10 Nic Claxton BKN 12.4 10.5 2.2
11 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 9.0 4.3 1.9
12 Spencer Dinwiddie LAL 8.4 2.5 1.8
13 Taurean Prince LAL 8.1 2.8 1.1
14 Gabe Vincent LAL 7.8 1.6 2.4
15 Trendon Watford BKN 6.5 2.9 1.0
16 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.0 4.9 1.5
17 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.6 4.1 0.8
18 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 5.6 1.5 2.5
19 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 5.2 1.9 0.8
20 Jalen Wilson BKN 5.1 2.5 1.1
21 Cam Reddish LAL 3.8 1.8 0.5
22 Max Christie LAL 3.4 1.5 0.6
23 Noah Clowney BKN 3.4 2.1 0.8
24 Colin Castleton LAL 3.0 1.6 0.6
25 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.2 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.