NBA games

CLE @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
101–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE26302124101
DEN30353629130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home DEN
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Evan Mobley S 29 23 4 1
Jarrett Allen S 27 19 4 1
Caris LeVert 33 15 6 5
Donovan Mitchell S 31 13 0 6
Max Strus S 27 9 2 2
Marcus Morris Sr. 12 7 0 0
Darius Garland S 29 5 2 7
Georges Niang 23 4 5 2
Sam Merrill 16 3 0 1
Damian Jones 5 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 35 26 18 16
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 35 22 3 4
Michael Porter Jr. S 29 19 6 0
Reggie Jackson S 23 19 3 3
Christian Braun 28 10 6 1
Peyton Watson 20 9 3 2
Aaron Gordon S 29 8 8 5
Justin Holiday 20 7 1 0
Jalen Pickett 3 5 0 1
Hunter Tyson 4 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Mitchell · Layup (2 pts) · 11:53 Q1
"Donovan Mitchell makes 1-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Aaron Gordon DEN
13%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
13%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
12%
4 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
5 Darius Garland CLE
10%
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
9%
7 Donovan Mitchell CLE
9%
8 Max Strus CLE
8%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
10 Reggie Jackson DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
23%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 27.3 11.2 7.6
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 20.6 4.5 5.4
3 Darius Garland CLE 19.9 3.9 7.5
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 17.7 6.3 2.1
5 Jarrett Allen CLE 17.6 10.4 2.5
6 Evan Mobley CLE 17.0 9.2 4.3
7 Aaron Gordon DEN 14.8 6.3 4.4
8 Max Strus CLE 13.5 3.2 4.1
9 Georges Niang CLE 13.2 3.3 1.6
10 Caris LeVert CLE 12.9 4.9 7.4
11 Reggie Jackson DEN 9.9 1.9 4.0
12 Sam Merrill CLE 9.5 2.8 2.8
13 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 9.1 3.0 2.6
14 Christian Braun DEN 8.5 3.6 1.7
15 Marcus Morris Sr. CLE 8.3 3.3 1.3
16 Peyton Watson DEN 5.7 3.7 0.8
17 Collin Gillespie DEN 5.5 1.7 1.7
18 Justin Holiday DEN 4.9 1.6 1.0
19 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.4 3.8 0.6
20 Tristan Thompson CLE 3.6 3.4 1.1
21 Damian Jones CLE 3.4 2.2 0.4
22 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.8 1.2 0.6
23 Julian Strawther DEN 2.8 1.1 0.6
24 Jay Huff DEN 2.5 1.3 0.5
25 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.4 1.1 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.