NBA games

MIL @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
122–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL33263033122
ATL28172939113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home ATL
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 38 36 16 8
Khris Middleton S 36 21 6 6
Patrick Beverley S 36 18 5 5
Brook Lopez S 33 13 3 0
Bobby Portis 21 13 4 2
Malik Beasley S 35 10 1 2
Jae Crowder 13 5 2 0
Pat Connaughton 16 4 3 4
AJ Green 11 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 37 38 10 4
Dejounte Murray S 42 20 8 12
De'Andre Hunter S 35 13 2 1
Clint Capela S 27 10 8 2
Bruno Fernando 21 10 4 2
Wesley Matthews 18 9 1 1
Vit Krejci S 32 8 2 1
Garrison Mathews 17 3 1 1
Trent Forrest 6 2 1 0
Dylan Windler 4 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brook Lopez · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Brook Lopez makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
12%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
3 Khris Middleton MIL
11%
4 Clint Capela ATL
10%
5 De'Andre Hunter ATL
9%
6 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
9%
7 Dejounte Murray ATL
9%
8 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL
8%
9 Vit Krejci ATL
7%
10 Brook Lopez MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
27%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 30.3 12.9 7.5
2 Dejounte Murray ATL 26.3 5.3 9.7
3 Trae Young ATL 22.6 3.0 11.4
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 18.3 8.4 4.5
5 De'Andre Hunter ATL 17.3 4.3 2.3
6 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 17.0 4.2 5.0
7 Khris Middleton MIL 16.5 5.5 6.2
8 Bobby Portis MIL 14.8 8.3 1.5
9 Clint Capela ATL 13.3 11.1 2.0
10 Malik Beasley MIL 12.1 3.8 1.5
11 Brook Lopez MIL 11.3 4.8 1.8
12 Vit Krejci ATL 8.7 2.9 2.4
13 Bruno Fernando ATL 8.2 6.2 1.6
14 Garrison Mathews ATL 8.1 2.0 1.3
15 Pat Connaughton MIL 7.8 2.9 2.1
16 Jae Crowder MIL 7.1 2.3 1.3
17 AJ Green MIL 5.5 1.7 0.8
18 Patrick Beverley MIL 5.1 2.7 1.6
19 Wesley Matthews ATL 5.1 2.2 1.0
20 Ryan Rollins MIL 4.0 1.5 1.1
21 TyTy Washington Jr. MIL 3.8 1.3 1.4
22 Trent Forrest ATL 3.8 1.9 3.2
23 Dylan Windler ATL 2.8 1.2 0.8
24 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 2.5 1.1 0.4
25 Danilo Gallinari MIL 2.3 0.9 0.5
26 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.7 0.8 0.4
27 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 1.7 1.2 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.