NBA games

MEM @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
88–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM1321213388
ORL33253228118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home ORL
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Goodwin 27 16 11 3
Brandon Clarke 20 13 4 3
GG Jackson S 30 11 3 3
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 21 11 3 2
Jake LaRavia S 28 10 2 1
Luke Kennard S 30 9 5 5
Maozinha Pereira 29 7 8 1
Lamar Stevens 21 7 4 2
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 26 4 4 1
Zavier Simpson 9 0 1 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Wendell Carter Jr. S 28 15 13 2
Jalen Suggs S 24 15 1 4
Cole Anthony 17 15 3 3
Paolo Banchero S 30 13 9 7
Franz Wagner S 29 13 4 4
Markelle Fultz 25 12 4 5
Joe Ingles 18 11 0 2
Caleb Houstan S 21 9 1 0
Moritz Wagner 12 4 1 0
Goga Bitadze 9 4 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Scotty Pippen Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 10:31 Q1
"Scotty Pippen Jr. makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
13%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
4 Markelle Fultz ORL
8%
5 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
6 GG Jackson MEM
8%
7 Ziaire Williams MEM
8%
8 Jalen Suggs ORL
7%
9 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
7%
10 Luke Kennard MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
35%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 23.7 7.1 3.5
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.6 6.9 6.5
3 GG Jackson MEM 18.2 4.6 2.2
4 Franz Wagner ORL 17.4 4.6 3.4
5 Jalen Suggs ORL 14.1 3.3 3.7
6 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 13.1 5.5 5.3
7 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 12.9 3.3 4.4
8 Cole Anthony ORL 12.8 4.3 2.7
9 Jake LaRavia MEM 11.9 3.9 2.3
10 Luke Kennard MEM 11.1 2.4 3.6
11 Lamar Stevens MEM 10.8 4.0 1.2
12 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.8 7.6 2.5
13 Ziaire Williams MEM 9.3 3.3 1.7
14 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.5 3.8 1.9
15 Jordan Goodwin MEM 7.1 3.9 3.3
16 Joe Ingles ORL 5.8 2.1 2.9
17 Markelle Fultz ORL 5.7 2.8 1.7
18 Anthony Black ORL 3.9 1.7 0.9
19 Caleb Houstan ORL 3.7 1.5 0.7
20 Maozinha Pereira MEM 3.0 1.9 0.4
21 Goga Bitadze ORL 2.4 2.1 0.7
22 Admiral Schofield ORL 1.8 0.8 0.5
23 Chuma Okeke ORL 1.6 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.