NBA games

BOS @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
104–92
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS28312421104
NO3720112492

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home NO
87% 13%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 36 23 9 4
Kristaps Porzingis S 31 19 10 3
Jaylen Brown S 35 17 7 6
Derrick White S 32 15 3 3
Jrue Holiday S 35 13 8 7
Al Horford 30 9 6 2
Sam Hauser 14 3 3 1
Xavier Tillman 10 3 2 1
Payton Pritchard 17 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 40 25 9 4
CJ McCollum S 37 24 2 5
Herbert Jones S 40 18 5 3
Trey Murphy III S 39 11 9 2
Larry Nance Jr. 21 5 3 2
Naji Marshall 23 5 5 1
Dyson Daniels 11 2 3 2
Jonas Valanciunas S 15 2 5 2
Matt Ryan 7 0 0 0
Jordan Hawkins 7 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zion Williamson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Zion Williamson makes two point shot (CJ McCollum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
28%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
13%
3 Jayson Tatum BOS
9%
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
8%
5 Jonas Valanciunas NO
7%
6 CJ McCollum NO
7%
7 Derrick White BOS
6%
8 Herbert Jones NO
6%
9 Trey Murphy III NO
5%
10 Jrue Holiday BOS
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
36%
Jumper
6%
Layup
47%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.5 6.3 6.0
2 Zion Williamson NO 26.3 7.3 4.8
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 25.4 5.5 3.5
4 CJ McCollum NO 21.1 4.1 5.2
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 19.5 6.6 2.2
6 Derrick White BOS 18.4 5.9 6.1
7 Trey Murphy III NO 15.8 5.9 2.8
8 Payton Pritchard BOS 12.9 3.7 5.4
9 Jrue Holiday BOS 12.0 4.0 4.9
10 Al Horford BOS 10.6 5.2 1.9
11 Herbert Jones NO 10.2 3.6 3.2
12 Sam Hauser BOS 9.3 3.6 1.4
13 Larry Nance Jr. NO 7.9 4.6 1.9
14 Naji Marshall NO 7.5 4.0 1.8
15 Jonas Valanciunas NO 7.4 6.4 1.4
16 Luke Kornet BOS 5.7 4.9 1.5
17 Dyson Daniels NO 5.6 3.1 2.0
18 Xavier Tillman BOS 4.5 3.4 0.9
19 Matt Ryan NO 3.9 1.4 0.7
20 Oshae Brissett BOS 3.8 2.8 0.7
21 Jordan Hawkins NO 3.7 1.4 0.8
22 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.3 1.2 0.8
23 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 3.0 1.4 1.0
24 Cody Zeller NO 1.5 1.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.