NBA games

DAL @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
107–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL26252234107
SAC34262221103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home SAC
67% 33%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 38 30 3 2
Luka Doncic S 41 26 9 12
Dereck Lively II 24 12 9 2
Dante Exum 23 8 3 2
Derrick Jones Jr. S 22 7 1 1
P.J. Washington S 33 7 6 2
Daniel Gafford S 24 6 7 0
Maxi Kleber 15 6 2 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. 20 5 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 40 23 6 5
Harrison Barnes S 40 20 6 2
Keon Ellis S 38 16 6 1
Domantas Sabonis S 36 13 12 10
Keegan Murray S 35 12 7 1
Kessler Edwards 11 9 2 0
Davion Mitchell 19 8 1 2
Malik Monk 1 2 1 0
Alex Len 12 0 3 3
Chris Duarte 7 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Aaron Fox · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"De'Aaron Fox makes 20-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
14%
2 Kyrie Irving DAL
13%
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC
12%
4 Daniel Gafford DAL
12%
5 Keegan Murray SAC
10%
6 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
7 Harrison Barnes SAC
8%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
7%
9 Keon Ellis SAC
7%
10 Luka Doncic DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
25%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 30.1 10.3 9.7
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.4 4.8 6.3
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC 24.0 6.1 5.7
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 18.7 13.1 7.6
5 Malik Monk SAC 17.1 3.8 4.7
6 Keegan Murray SAC 14.4 5.8 1.7
7 Daniel Gafford DAL 13.6 8.3 1.8
8 Harrison Barnes SAC 11.3 3.6 1.5
9 P.J. Washington DAL 9.6 6.2 1.2
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 8.2 2.3 1.9
11 Keon Ellis SAC 7.7 3.4 1.8
12 Dereck Lively II DAL 7.3 5.5 0.8
13 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 6.8 2.6 1.1
14 Dante Exum DAL 6.7 2.1 2.8
15 Davion Mitchell SAC 5.4 1.5 1.5
16 Chris Duarte SAC 4.8 2.3 0.8
17 Jaden Hardy DAL 3.7 1.0 1.0
18 Maxi Kleber DAL 3.6 2.5 1.1
19 Alex Len SAC 3.4 2.6 0.7
20 Markieff Morris DAL 2.7 1.1 0.5
21 JaVale McGee SAC 2.6 1.8 0.5
22 A.J. Lawson DAL 2.3 1.1 0.4
23 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.0 1.0 0.5
24 Colby Jones SAC 2.0 1.3 0.9
25 Dwight Powell DAL 1.7 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.