NBA games

HOU @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
101–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU13282832101
UTAH23242528100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home UTAH
86% 14%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 39 34 9 6
Fred VanVleet S 42 22 2 6
Amen Thompson S 40 18 14 5
Jabari Smith Jr. S 33 14 5 1
Dillon Brooks S 21 5 4 0
Jeff Green 20 5 4 0
Jock Landale 26 2 5 0
Jae'Sean Tate 3 1 1 0
Reggie Bullock Jr. 5 0 1 0
Aaron Holiday 10 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
John Collins S 30 30 11 0
Collin Sexton S 44 29 6 5
Johnny Juzang 24 12 2 3
Kris Dunn 22 11 8 1
Taylor Hendricks S 35 8 9 2
Keyonte George S 29 6 1 6
Walker Kessler 18 4 6 1
Brice Sensabaugh S 25 0 4 5
Micah Potter 13 0 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Collin Sexton · Layup (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Collin Sexton makes 4-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Keyonte George UTAH
14%
2 John Collins UTAH
13%
3 Amen Thompson HOU
13%
4 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
12%
5 Collin Sexton UTAH
10%
6 Fred VanVleet HOU
10%
7 Dillon Brooks HOU
10%
8 Jalen Green HOU
9%
9 Taylor Hendricks UTAH
9%
10 Jeff Green HOU
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
39%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green HOU 28.3 6.0 4.9
2 Collin Sexton UTAH 23.0 3.7 6.3
3 Keyonte George UTAH 20.1 3.9 5.5
4 Fred VanVleet HOU 19.8 4.1 9.2
5 John Collins UTAH 17.7 8.2 1.4
6 Amen Thompson HOU 16.7 9.3 3.1
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.9 6.6 2.0
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.8 3.3 2.3
9 Jock Landale HOU 9.9 5.2 2.3
10 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 9.3 6.4 1.0
11 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 8.4 3.7 2.7
12 Jeff Green HOU 8.0 2.8 1.2
13 Walker Kessler UTAH 7.7 8.6 1.2
14 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.9 1.7 1.9
15 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 5.6 2.2 1.9
16 Kris Dunn UTAH 5.5 2.3 2.5
17 Johnny Juzang UTAH 4.8 1.5 0.6
18 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 4.7 3.0 0.6
19 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.1 2.2 1.1
20 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.7 2.7 0.8
21 Luka Samanic UTAH 3.6 2.5 0.6
22 Micah Potter UTAH 3.3 1.8 0.5
23 Kira Lewis Jr. UTAH 3.1 1.3 1.0
24 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.3 2.1 0.5
25 Nate Williams HOU 2.1 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.