NBA games

MIN @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
111–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN33292524111
DEN2617213498

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home DEN
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 39 25 4 5
Mike Conley S 32 23 3 8
Rudy Gobert S 35 21 12 2
Jaden McDaniels S 31 17 3 3
Naz Reid S 33 7 6 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 17 6 1 0
Jordan McLaughlin 13 5 4 1
Kyle Anderson 27 5 3 7
Monte Morris 11 2 2 0
Leonard Miller 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 37 32 10 5
Aaron Gordon S 31 14 7 4
Michael Porter Jr. S 36 14 6 4
Reggie Jackson S 37 12 4 10
DeAndre Jordan 10 11 7 0
Christian Braun 26 8 5 2
Justin Holiday 16 5 1 0
Hunter Tyson 1 2 0 0
Peyton Watson 11 0 3 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 28 0 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Aaron Gordon · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Aaron Gordon makes 1-foot dunk (Nikola Jokic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Aaron Gordon DEN
14%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
14%
3 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
11%
4 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
7 Mike Conley MIN
8%
8 Reggie Jackson DEN
8%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
8%
10 Naz Reid MIN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
23%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
31%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 27.7 11.6 7.5
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.6 7.0 5.8
3 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 18.7 6.4 2.0
4 Naz Reid MIN 17.4 6.6 2.5
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 15.2 6.6 3.8
6 Mike Conley MIN 13.0 3.0 4.5
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.8 12.1 1.7
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN 11.7 4.9 1.4
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.2 3.2 2.6
10 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.9 2.9 2.1
11 Kyle Anderson MIN 9.6 4.4 4.7
12 Reggie Jackson DEN 9.0 1.8 3.3
13 Christian Braun DEN 8.7 3.7 1.6
14 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 6.1 2.2 2.1
15 Peyton Watson DEN 6.0 4.0 0.9
16 Collin Gillespie DEN 5.7 1.7 1.7
17 Monte Morris MIN 4.9 1.3 1.9
18 Luka Garza MIN 4.7 1.6 0.6
19 Justin Holiday DEN 4.5 1.8 1.3
20 T.J. Warren MIN 3.9 1.9 0.7
21 Julian Strawther DEN 3.4 1.3 0.8
22 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.5 3.4 0.4
23 Josh Minott MIN 2.4 1.3 0.5
24 Leonard Miller MIN 2.4 1.4 0.6
25 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 2.2 0.9 0.5
26 Hunter Tyson DEN 1.6 0.8 0.3
27 Jay Huff DEN 1.6 0.8 0.3
28 Braxton Key DEN 1.4 0.8 0.3
29 Jalen Pickett DEN 1.4 0.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.