NBA games

NY @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
126–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
NY273034305126
SA383620279130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home SA
86% 14%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 43 61 4 6
Donte DiVincenzo S 49 20 6 2
Josh Hart S 42 12 12 8
Miles McBride S 46 7 2 3
Isaiah Hartenstein S 28 7 4 4
Mitchell Robinson 20 7 12 0
Precious Achiuwa 16 6 5 0
Bojan Bogdanovic 15 4 2 0
Shake Milton 6 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 38 40 20 7
Devin Vassell S 45 23 2 7
Keldon Johnson 35 17 5 4
Tre Jones S 35 13 4 4
Julian Champagnie S 28 12 5 2
Malaki Branham 19 10 2 2
Jeremy Sochan S 17 4 0 1
Blake Wesley 13 4 5 3
Cedi Osman 20 4 0 2
Zach Collins 15 3 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julian Champagnie · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Julian Champagnie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
3 Devin Vassell SA
12%
4 Jeremy Sochan SA
11%
5 Josh Hart NY
10%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
10%
7 Tre Jones SA
8%
8 Donte DiVincenzo NY
8%
9 Miles McBride NY
7%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
30%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 31.8 12.8 4.8
2 Jalen Brunson NY 28.3 3.8 6.7
3 Devin Vassell SA 21.5 3.8 5.3
4 Donte DiVincenzo NY 17.9 4.5 3.6
5 Jeremy Sochan SA 15.8 8.1 3.5
6 Keldon Johnson SA 14.5 5.5 1.9
7 Miles McBride NY 13.6 2.8 2.3
8 Tre Jones SA 12.1 3.8 6.5
9 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 10.1 8.2 2.4
10 Precious Achiuwa NY 9.7 8.5 1.9
11 Zach Collins SA 9.7 4.5 2.2
12 Josh Hart NY 8.7 9.6 5.6
13 Julian Champagnie SA 8.1 2.7 1.5
14 Mitchell Robinson NY 7.1 7.8 1.3
15 Malaki Branham SA 7.0 1.8 1.5
16 Bojan Bogdanovic NY 6.8 1.6 1.3
17 Blake Wesley SA 5.3 2.2 2.3
18 Alec Burks NY 5.2 1.5 0.7
19 Mamadi Diakite NY 5.0 2.4 0.6
20 Cedi Osman SA 4.9 2.6 1.2
21 Shake Milton NY 4.2 2.2 1.0
22 Jericho Sims NY 3.2 3.7 0.7
23 Devonte' Graham SA 2.6 1.1 0.4
24 DaQuan Jeffries NY 2.4 0.9 0.7
25 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 2.4 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.