NBA games

PHX @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
103–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX32272123103
OKC34363127128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home OKC
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 31 26 6 1
Bradley Beal S 31 15 3 2
Devin Booker S 27 14 3 5
Grayson Allen S 28 13 9 5
Nassir Little 8 7 1 1
Eric Gordon 22 6 2 2
Jusuf Nurkic S 23 5 3 3
Isaiah Thomas 8 5 0 1
Josh Okogie 14 5 2 1
Royce O'Neale 22 5 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Giddey S 24 23 7 9
Chet Holmgren S 28 20 6 2
Cason Wallace 32 16 4 3
Jalen Williams S 30 16 4 3
Aaron Wiggins S 26 15 4 2
Isaiah Joe 22 14 3 1
Luguentz Dort S 27 11 1 3
Kenrich Williams 19 6 4 1
Gordon Hayward 11 4 1 2
Jaylin Williams 14 3 3 6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Durant · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:50 Q1
"Kevin Durant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
13%
2 Kevin Durant PHX
11%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
4 Josh Giddey OKC
10%
5 Bradley Beal PHX
9%
6 Jalen Williams OKC
9%
7 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
9%
8 Drew Eubanks PHX
8%
9 Grayson Allen PHX
7%
10 Cason Wallace OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
56%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 25.7 5.5 6.9
2 Kevin Durant PHX 25.5 7.4 4.4
3 Jalen Williams OKC 22.1 4.3 5.2
4 Bradley Beal PHX 17.9 4.2 6.7
5 Josh Giddey OKC 17.1 6.8 5.1
6 Grayson Allen PHX 15.9 3.4 3.3
7 Chet Holmgren OKC 14.6 7.8 2.0
8 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.6 3.5 1.9
9 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 9.8 10.3 3.4
10 Eric Gordon PHX 8.2 2.2 1.7
11 Cason Wallace OKC 7.8 2.5 1.7
12 Royce O'Neale PHX 7.2 4.2 1.8
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.2 2.0 1.5
14 Gordon Hayward OKC 6.4 2.1 2.2
15 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.8 2.2 1.3
16 Bol Bol PHX 5.3 3.1 0.7
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.3 3.5 1.4
18 Drew Eubanks PHX 4.6 3.9 0.8
19 Thaddeus Young PHX 4.6 3.9 1.0
20 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.2 3.1 0.9
21 Josh Okogie PHX 3.7 1.8 0.9
22 Mike Muscala OKC 3.3 1.5 0.8
23 Udoka Azubuike PHX 2.7 2.1 0.5
24 Bismack Biyombo OKC 2.6 2.7 0.8
25 Nassir Little PHX 1.7 0.9 0.4
26 David Roddy PHX 1.5 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.