NBA games

POR @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
82–142
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR1921231982
MIA29453335142

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home MIA
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scoot Henderson S 41 20 6 6
Deandre Ayton S 25 18 8 1
Dalano Banton 30 12 9 2
Kris Murray S 42 11 5 4
Duop Reath 14 6 2 0
Rayan Rupert S 26 6 4 3
Jabari Walker S 35 4 3 2
Ibou Badji 9 3 3 0
Justin Minaya 11 2 2 0
Matisse Thybulle 7 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Thomas Bryant 22 26 12 1
Terry Rozier S 27 22 3 6
Bam Adebayo S 26 21 12 9
Haywood Highsmith 28 20 6 1
Patty Mills S 28 17 0 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 25 12 3 5
Jimmy Butler III S 25 8 4 8
Nikola Jovic S 17 5 2 3
Delon Wright 21 5 0 1
Caleb Martin 9 3 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kris Murray · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Kris Murray makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
2 Anfernee Simons POR
11%
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA
10%
4 Deandre Ayton POR
10%
5 Terry Rozier MIA
9%
6 Scoot Henderson POR
8%
7 Duncan Robinson MIA
6%
8 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
6%
9 Nikola Jovic MIA
6%
10 Rayan Rupert POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
26%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anfernee Simons POR 22.4 3.8 6.4
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA 22.4 4.6 5.5
3 Deandre Ayton POR 21.1 12.0 2.0
4 Dalano Banton POR 19.3 4.6 4.2
5 Bam Adebayo MIA 17.8 11.4 3.6
6 Terry Rozier MIA 17.6 4.9 3.6
7 Scoot Henderson POR 16.5 4.1 6.5
8 Duncan Robinson MIA 13.9 3.4 2.9
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 10.8 3.8 2.3
10 Caleb Martin MIA 10.6 4.3 2.2
11 Jabari Walker POR 9.9 6.4 1.5
12 Shaedon Sharpe POR 9.7 3.6 1.6
13 Kris Murray POR 9.4 4.7 1.9
14 Duop Reath POR 8.3 2.8 1.3
15 Nikola Jovic MIA 8.1 3.6 1.9
16 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.5 2.7 1.8
17 Kevin Love MIA 6.3 5.1 1.4
18 Patty Mills MIA 5.6 1.6 1.7
19 Haywood Highsmith MIA 5.4 2.1 1.2
20 Thomas Bryant MIA 5.4 3.6 0.8
21 Rayan Rupert POR 4.9 2.4 1.8
22 Delon Wright MIA 4.8 1.8 1.8
23 Jamal Cain MIA 3.5 1.3 0.8
24 Justin Minaya POR 2.8 1.2 0.6
25 Ibou Badji POR 2.6 1.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.