NBA games

PHI @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
114–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI25303227114
CLE28292832117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home CLE
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Lowry S 32 23 3 6
Tobias Harris S 35 21 7 2
Tyrese Maxey S 43 16 2 11
Mo Bamba S 22 14 7 1
Paul Reed 26 12 7 0
Buddy Hield 18 10 4 2
Nicolas Batum 31 8 8 3
Ricky Council IV 9 4 0 1
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 21 4 4 0
Cameron Payne 5 2 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Georges Niang 31 25 0 0
Evan Mobley S 31 20 11 3
Max Strus S 27 15 1 3
Darius Garland S 35 14 3 12
Jarrett Allen S 26 13 11 2
Sam Merrill 21 13 2 3
Donovan Mitchell S 32 12 3 8
Marcus Morris Sr. 17 3 5 1
Isaac Okoro 15 2 0 0
Tristan Thompson 6 0 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyle Lowry · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:11 Q1
"Kyle Lowry makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
12%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
11%
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
11%
5 Tobias Harris PHI
10%
6 Darius Garland CLE
9%
7 Donovan Mitchell CLE
8%
8 Max Strus CLE
7%
9 Isaac Okoro CLE
7%
10 Mo Bamba PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
17%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
28%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 23.8 3.5 5.5
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 20.0 4.2 4.9
3 Darius Garland CLE 19.6 3.7 6.9
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 18.4 6.6 2.9
5 Jarrett Allen CLE 18.1 10.2 2.7
6 Evan Mobley CLE 15.9 9.1 3.9
7 Tobias Harris PHI 14.7 7.3 2.8
8 Max Strus CLE 12.8 3.6 4.1
9 Georges Niang CLE 12.7 3.6 1.7
10 Isaac Okoro CLE 9.9 3.1 1.8
11 Buddy Hield PHI 9.4 3.1 1.8
12 Sam Merrill CLE 9.2 2.7 2.7
13 Cameron Payne PHI 8.6 2.0 2.7
14 Kyle Lowry PHI 8.4 2.7 3.4
15 Paul Reed PHI 8.3 6.7 1.5
16 Marcus Morris Sr. CLE 7.3 2.7 1.1
17 Mo Bamba PHI 6.7 5.5 1.2
18 Ty Jerome CLE 6.5 2.2 3.5
19 Nicolas Batum PHI 6.2 4.1 1.6
20 Ricky Council IV PHI 4.1 1.1 0.6
21 Tristan Thompson CLE 4.0 4.1 1.3
22 KJ Martin PHI 3.7 2.6 0.9
23 Damian Jones CLE 3.4 2.4 0.5
24 D.J. Wilson PHI 3.0 1.4 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.