NBA games

DET @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
96–87
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET2336211696
WSH2020351287

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home WSH
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 37 33 8 7
Jalen Duren S 35 20 17 1
Jaden Ivey S 37 13 7 5
Evan Fournier 26 10 2 0
Tosan Evbuomwan S 33 8 4 2
Chimezie Metu 26 5 3 1
Troy Brown Jr. S 19 4 2 0
Malachi Flynn 14 3 2 3
James Wiseman 13 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Corey Kispert S 38 23 6 0
Deni Avdija S 39 18 11 9
Marvin Bagley III S 27 15 11 1
Kyle Kuzma S 37 12 8 3
Jordan Poole S 37 7 3 6
Jared Butler 20 6 1 2
Anthony Gill 18 6 3 0
Tristan Vukcevic 2 0 2 0
Johnny Davis 10 0 0 1
Jules Bernard 5 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Troy Brown Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Troy Brown Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
13%
2 Deni Avdija WSH
11%
3 Kyle Kuzma WSH
10%
4 Jaden Ivey DET
9%
5 Jordan Poole WSH
9%
6 Jalen Duren DET
8%
7 Chimezie Metu DET
8%
8 Corey Kispert WSH
7%
9 Tyus Jones WSH
7%
10 Stanley Umude DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
46%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 25.3 5.3 8.3
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 25.2 6.2 6.3
3 Jordan Poole WSH 20.2 3.5 5.9
4 Deni Avdija WSH 19.6 9.2 4.0
5 Jaden Ivey DET 17.0 4.1 4.4
6 Jalen Duren DET 15.3 11.7 2.7
7 Corey Kispert WSH 15.1 3.7 2.2
8 Marvin Bagley III WSH 13.2 7.9 1.6
9 James Wiseman DET 12.0 8.5 1.6
10 Marcus Sasser DET 10.7 2.8 4.3
11 Tyus Jones WSH 9.9 2.7 9.4
12 Jared Butler WSH 7.3 2.6 4.8
13 Evan Fournier DET 6.8 1.9 1.9
14 Tosan Evbuomwan DET 6.3 3.0 0.8
15 Malachi Flynn DET 6.0 2.1 1.2
16 Chimezie Metu DET 5.4 3.7 1.4
17 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 5.0 3.5 1.2
18 Troy Brown Jr. DET 4.9 2.5 1.1
19 Buddy Boeheim DET 4.7 1.6 0.7
20 Anthony Gill WSH 4.6 2.1 1.2
21 Johnny Davis WSH 4.6 1.9 1.1
22 Stanley Umude DET 4.4 1.9 0.5
23 Jared Rhoden DET 4.1 2.1 0.9
24 Jules Bernard WSH 4.1 1.4 1.1
25 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 3.2 1.8 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.