NBA games

LAC @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
100–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC23293315100
ORL1931272097

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home ORL
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 38 29 11 5
Ivica Zubac S 35 14 9 2
Paul George S 35 12 4 1
James Harden S 37 11 8 4
Norman Powell 26 10 0 1
Mason Plumlee 13 8 4 0
Amir Coffey 19 6 2 0
Terance Mann S 20 5 0 1
Russell Westbrook 18 5 3 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 38 23 8 2
Jalen Suggs S 33 15 1 5
Franz Wagner S 36 13 3 3
Moritz Wagner 18 12 9 2
Gary Harris S 24 8 2 0
Cole Anthony 19 8 3 0
Caleb Houstan 14 8 1 1
Joe Ingles 19 5 1 4
Jonathan Isaac 16 3 5 1
Wendell Carter Jr. S 24 2 5 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Gary Harris · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Gary Harris makes 7-foot two point shot (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
13%
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC
13%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
4 James Harden LAC
9%
5 Ivica Zubac LAC
9%
6 Paul George LAC
8%
7 Jalen Suggs ORL
8%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
7%
9 Terance Mann LAC
7%
10 Gary Harris ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
29%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paul George LAC 23.5 4.9 4.2
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.5 6.4 6.8
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC 21.4 5.7 3.1
4 Franz Wagner ORL 18.6 4.9 3.2
5 James Harden LAC 15.6 4.8 8.3
6 Norman Powell LAC 14.5 3.3 1.6
7 Cole Anthony ORL 13.2 4.6 2.7
8 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.1 3.4 3.5
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 11.0 7.4 2.3
10 Terance Mann LAC 10.3 3.0 1.2
11 Ivica Zubac LAC 10.0 7.9 1.3
12 Russell Westbrook LAC 9.4 2.6 2.9
13 Jonathan Isaac ORL 8.8 4.9 1.0
14 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.5 3.4 1.6
15 Amir Coffey LAC 8.0 2.9 1.7
16 Gary Harris ORL 7.2 1.7 1.1
17 Bones Hyland LAC 5.4 1.4 2.5
18 Joe Ingles ORL 5.1 1.9 2.5
19 Anthony Black ORL 4.2 1.8 0.9
20 Daniel Theis LAC 4.0 2.7 0.7
21 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.7 2.7 0.7
22 Brandon Boston LAC 3.5 1.3 0.3
23 Mason Plumlee LAC 3.3 3.2 0.7
24 Goga Bitadze ORL 2.4 1.9 0.7
25 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.2 0.8 0.4
26 Xavier Moon LAC 2.1 1.1 0.8
27 Chuma Okeke ORL 1.5 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.