NBA games

LAL @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
90–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL2425231890
IND27273223109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home IND
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 38 24 15 3
LeBron James S 35 16 10 8
Austin Reaves S 36 16 13 6
Rui Hachimura S 31 14 0 0
D'Angelo Russell S 35 6 3 5
Spencer Dinwiddie 21 5 1 0
Taurean Prince 15 5 0 0
Jaxson Hayes 11 2 2 2
Max Christie 2 2 0 0
Maxwell Lewis 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 31 22 11 6
Tyrese Haliburton S 33 21 8 8
T.J. McConnell 19 16 3 3
Aaron Nesmith S 39 12 4 2
Andrew Nembhard S 30 10 2 2
Myles Turner S 28 10 5 3
Obi Toppin 17 7 2 0
Ben Sheppard 20 7 2 3
Jalen Smith 17 4 7 0
Jarace Walker 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rui Hachimura · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:01 Q1
"Rui Hachimura makes 24-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
12%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND
11%
4 Rui Hachimura LAL
10%
5 Myles Turner IND
10%
6 Austin Reaves LAL
8%
7 LeBron James LAL
8%
8 Jaxson Hayes LAL
8%
9 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
10 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
28%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 28.3 8.5 8.9
2 Pascal Siakam IND 23.8 10.5 4.0
3 Anthony Davis LAL 23.6 13.4 4.0
4 D'Angelo Russell LAL 21.1 4.2 6.6
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND 20.4 4.7 9.8
6 Austin Reaves LAL 19.9 5.5 6.0
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 17.3 5.7 1.7
8 Myles Turner IND 16.0 6.1 1.7
9 T.J. McConnell IND 14.4 3.5 5.2
10 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.7 4.1 1.9
11 Andrew Nembhard IND 11.3 2.8 3.4
12 Spencer Dinwiddie LAL 9.3 2.8 1.9
13 Taurean Prince LAL 8.7 3.5 1.2
14 Obi Toppin IND 8.4 3.9 1.5
15 Jalen Smith IND 8.3 4.7 1.2
16 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.2 4.7 0.7
17 Ben Sheppard IND 5.7 1.9 1.3
18 Isaiah Jackson IND 5.6 4.0 0.9
19 Doug McDermott IND 5.0 1.4 1.1
20 Jarace Walker IND 4.6 2.6 1.5
21 Cam Reddish LAL 4.5 1.8 0.6
22 Colin Castleton LAL 3.7 2.4 0.6
23 Max Christie LAL 3.7 1.8 0.7
24 James Johnson IND 2.6 1.4 0.8
25 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.5 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.