NBA games

GS @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
115–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS26243926115
CHA1728262697

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home CHA
76% 24%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 32 23 1 4
Andrew Wiggins S 35 20 8 8
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 31 18 8 1
Moses Moody 25 15 4 3
Chris Paul S 33 11 7 9
Draymond Green S 28 8 8 4
Kevon Looney 10 8 7 1
Gary Payton II 13 6 1 1
Brandin Podziemski 26 4 5 3
Jerome Robinson 2 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 38 22 9 3
Davis Bertans 19 14 3 1
Brandon Miller S 33 12 3 3
Grant Williams 26 12 8 4
Nick Richards S 31 12 8 0
Vasilije Micic S 33 10 2 8
Tre Mann S 33 7 3 4
Aleksej Pokusevski 19 6 3 0
Bryce McGowens 2 2 1 0
Amari Bailey 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Wiggins · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Andrew Wiggins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
18%
2 Stephen Curry GS
13%
3 Andrew Wiggins GS
10%
4 Vasilije Micic CHA
10%
5 Nick Richards CHA
9%
6 Tre Mann CHA
9%
7 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
9%
8 Draymond Green GS
8%
9 Brandon Miller CHA
8%
10 Klay Thompson GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
25%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Miles Bridges CHA 22.0 7.1 4.0
2 Stephen Curry GS 21.2 4.4 5.0
3 Klay Thompson GS 18.6 3.4 3.0
4 Brandon Miller CHA 17.8 4.9 2.7
5 Andrew Wiggins GS 15.2 6.0 1.6
6 Vasilije Micic CHA 14.9 3.1 6.1
7 Grant Williams CHA 14.1 4.6 3.0
8 Tre Mann CHA 13.7 4.4 5.5
9 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 11.0 8.0 1.8
10 Nick Richards CHA 10.4 9.5 1.3
11 Chris Paul GS 10.2 4.2 5.9
12 Draymond Green GS 9.0 8.0 5.9
13 Brandin Podziemski GS 8.8 5.3 2.9
14 Davis Bertans CHA 7.1 2.5 1.7
15 Moses Moody GS 6.2 3.0 1.0
16 Aleksej Pokusevski CHA 6.1 3.7 1.8
17 Lester Quinones GS 4.1 2.0 0.8
18 Gary Payton II GS 4.0 2.1 1.3
19 Kevon Looney GS 3.5 3.5 0.9
20 Bryce McGowens CHA 3.2 1.5 0.5
21 JT Thor CHA 3.0 1.5 0.8
22 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 3.0 0.9 0.8
23 Jerome Robinson GS 2.8 1.3 0.6
24 Amari Bailey CHA 1.6 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.