NBA games

MIL @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
100–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL25202827100
NO26352422107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home NO
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 39 35 14 4
Damian Lillard S 36 20 5 7
Malik Beasley S 33 20 2 0
Khris Middleton S 33 7 8 6
Brook Lopez S 37 7 5 1
Bobby Portis 16 5 7 0
Jae Crowder 15 3 2 2
Pat Connaughton 22 3 1 1
Patrick Beverley 7 0 2 0
AJ Green 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 33 28 5 2
CJ McCollum S 39 25 7 7
Jonas Valanciunas S 23 17 10 1
Trey Murphy III S 39 15 11 5
Herbert Jones S 37 11 4 4
Larry Nance Jr. 25 9 7 3
Jordan Hawkins 15 2 1 0
Matt Ryan 5 0 0 0
Naji Marshall 23 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zion Williamson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Zion Williamson makes alley oop layup (Herbert Jones assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
27%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
14%
3 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
12%
4 Khris Middleton MIL
9%
5 Jonas Valanciunas NO
7%
6 Herbert Jones NO
7%
7 CJ McCollum NO
7%
8 Trey Murphy III NO
6%
9 Brook Lopez MIL
6%
10 Malik Beasley MIL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
46%
Jumper
13%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 30.8 12.5 7.2
2 Zion Williamson NO 26.2 8.5 5.6
3 Damian Lillard MIL 23.2 4.4 8.0
4 CJ McCollum NO 19.9 4.1 5.2
5 Khris Middleton MIL 17.3 5.3 6.1
6 Bobby Portis MIL 15.5 8.0 1.5
7 Trey Murphy III NO 15.3 5.5 2.8
8 Herbert Jones NO 10.5 3.6 3.3
9 Brook Lopez MIL 10.4 4.5 1.7
10 Malik Beasley MIL 10.4 3.7 1.4
11 Naji Marshall NO 8.9 4.2 1.9
12 Pat Connaughton MIL 7.6 2.9 2.3
13 Larry Nance Jr. NO 7.4 4.5 1.9
14 Jose Alvarado NO 6.9 2.6 2.1
15 Jae Crowder MIL 6.7 2.4 1.1
16 Jonas Valanciunas NO 6.3 6.7 1.5
17 AJ Green MIL 5.1 1.6 0.8
18 Patrick Beverley MIL 5.0 2.8 1.5
19 Jordan Hawkins NO 3.8 1.4 0.8
20 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 3.5 1.7 1.0
21 Matt Ryan NO 3.4 1.1 0.6
22 Jalen Crutcher NO 2.8 0.6 1.0
23 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 2.3 1.0 0.3
24 Danilo Gallinari MIL 2.2 0.8 0.4
25 Cody Zeller NO 2.1 2.2 0.5
26 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.5 0.7 0.4
27 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 1.5 1.1 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.