NBA games

BOS @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
122–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
BOS2934272210122
ATL2831302311123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home ATL
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 45 31 13 6
Derrick White S 41 22 7 5
Kristaps Porzingis S 41 20 7 2
Jaylen Brown S 39 18 1 4
Jrue Holiday S 37 13 7 5
Sam Hauser 23 8 2 3
Payton Pritchard 19 4 1 2
Luke Kornet 13 4 3 0
Xavier Tillman 9 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dejounte Murray S 47 44 7 7
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 43 24 7 5
De'Andre Hunter S 40 21 13 1
Clint Capela S 33 12 13 3
Garrison Mathews 17 7 1 1
Bruno Fernando 20 6 4 2
Trent Forrest 6 4 0 1
Wesley Matthews 24 3 5 3
Vit Krejci S 35 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dejounte Murray ATL
11%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
10%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
9%
4 Trae Young ATL
9%
5 Jalen Johnson ATL
8%
6 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
8%
7 Clint Capela ATL
8%
8 Derrick White BOS
7%
9 De'Andre Hunter ATL
6%
10 Vit Krejci ATL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
40%
Jumper
13%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Dejounte Murray ATL 29.2 5.3 8.6
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 27.3 6.3 5.8
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 25.3 5.3 3.5
4 Trae Young ATL 22.5 3.0 10.1
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 19.9 6.3 2.3
6 Jalen Johnson ATL 17.8 8.2 4.3
7 Derrick White BOS 16.6 5.7 6.2
8 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 16.3 4.0 4.8
9 De'Andre Hunter ATL 15.3 3.6 2.2
10 Payton Pritchard BOS 14.4 3.7 5.7
11 Clint Capela ATL 12.8 10.4 1.9
12 Al Horford BOS 11.5 5.2 2.1
13 Jrue Holiday BOS 11.3 3.3 5.1
14 Sam Hauser BOS 10.6 3.8 1.4
15 Vit Krejci ATL 8.6 2.8 2.7
16 Garrison Mathews ATL 8.0 2.0 1.2
17 Bruno Fernando ATL 7.2 6.1 1.4
18 Luke Kornet BOS 6.1 5.4 1.5
19 Oshae Brissett BOS 4.3 3.0 0.9
20 Wesley Matthews ATL 4.3 1.9 0.7
21 Xavier Tillman BOS 4.0 3.1 0.8
22 Trent Forrest ATL 4.0 1.8 3.1
23 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.8 1.3 1.0
24 Dylan Windler ATL 3.3 1.5 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.