NBA games

PHX @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
104–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX29302421104
DEN2923212497

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home DEN
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 38 30 13 3
Devin Booker S 37 17 5 9
Grayson Allen S 33 13 3 4
Eric Gordon 20 10 1 0
Bradley Beal S 37 10 4 7
Bol Bol 12 8 5 1
Thaddeus Young 18 6 9 2
Royce O'Neale 18 5 7 2
Drew Eubanks S 27 5 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 42 22 9 10
Michael Porter Jr. S 33 18 8 0
Aaron Gordon S 36 18 6 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 36 13 6 6
Reggie Jackson S 29 11 1 3
Collin Gillespie 16 8 1 3
Peyton Watson 19 5 4 0
Julian Strawther 4 2 0 0
Christian Braun 15 0 3 0
Justin Holiday 10 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bradley Beal · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:02 Q1
"Bradley Beal makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
14%
2 Bradley Beal PHX
10%
3 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
4 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
9%
5 Kevin Durant PHX
9%
6 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
9%
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
8%
9 Reggie Jackson DEN
8%
10 Christian Braun DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
28%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.2 11.0 8.1
2 Devin Booker PHX 27.8 5.7 6.3
3 Kevin Durant PHX 25.7 6.6 4.3
4 Bradley Beal PHX 19.7 4.3 6.8
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 17.3 5.7 2.1
6 Grayson Allen PHX 16.9 3.4 3.1
7 Aaron Gordon DEN 14.0 6.1 4.1
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.3 2.8 2.4
9 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 10.1 10.6 3.3
10 Christian Braun DEN 9.1 3.6 1.8
11 Reggie Jackson DEN 8.6 1.5 3.4
12 Eric Gordon PHX 8.3 2.0 1.7
13 Royce O'Neale PHX 7.9 4.5 2.0
14 Peyton Watson DEN 6.8 4.0 1.1
15 Bol Bol PHX 5.6 3.3 0.6
16 Collin Gillespie DEN 5.5 1.6 1.6
17 Justin Holiday DEN 5.0 1.7 1.6
18 Drew Eubanks PHX 4.8 4.3 0.7
19 Thaddeus Young PHX 3.9 3.3 1.0
20 Josh Okogie PHX 3.7 1.9 0.9
21 Julian Strawther DEN 3.5 1.2 1.0
22 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.5 3.6 0.7
23 Jay Huff DEN 2.8 1.2 0.7
24 Udoka Azubuike PHX 2.7 2.0 0.5
25 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.7 1.1 0.7
26 Braxton Key DEN 2.5 1.2 0.6
27 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.5 0.9 0.9
28 Nassir Little PHX 1.8 0.9 0.3
29 David Roddy PHX 1.6 0.8 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.