NBA games

HOU @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
132–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
HOU2821313220132
OKC1733352714126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home OKC
69% 31%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 46 37 10 7
Amen Thompson S 39 25 15 4
Dillon Brooks S 43 20 4 4
Jabari Smith Jr. S 35 16 3 0
Fred VanVleet S 43 13 4 6
Jeff Green 13 7 2 1
Jock Landale 20 7 6 1
Aaron Holiday 11 4 2 2
Reggie Bullock Jr. 6 3 3 0
Jae'Sean Tate 9 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Giddey S 32 31 7 4
Jalen Williams S 38 23 5 10
Isaiah Joe 33 17 3 6
Aaron Wiggins 25 16 4 1
Gordon Hayward 22 13 2 1
Luguentz Dort S 34 8 4 2
Jaylin Williams 14 5 5 0
Kenrich Williams 20 5 9 1
Cason Wallace S 25 4 2 1
Mike Muscala 4 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Fred VanVleet · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Fred VanVleet makes 25-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Green HOU
14%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
4 Josh Giddey OKC
11%
5 Amen Thompson HOU
10%
6 Jock Landale HOU
9%
7 Dillon Brooks HOU
9%
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
9 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
36%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green HOU 25.1 5.8 4.0
2 Jalen Williams OKC 20.0 4.3 4.3
3 Fred VanVleet HOU 19.0 4.2 9.5
4 Josh Giddey OKC 16.4 6.8 5.1
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.0 8.9 2.2
6 Amen Thompson HOU 13.4 7.6 2.4
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.4 6.5 1.6
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 11.6 2.9 1.9
9 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.2 3.3 1.7
10 Jock Landale HOU 9.2 4.7 1.9
11 Cason Wallace OKC 7.5 2.6 1.6
12 Jeff Green HOU 7.1 2.7 1.0
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.1 2.1 1.1
14 Gordon Hayward OKC 6.0 2.3 2.0
15 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.7 1.5 1.7
16 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.1 2.0 1.2
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.9 3.3 1.5
18 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.2 3.1 0.9
19 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.1 2.4 1.0
20 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.1 2.4 0.6
21 Bismack Biyombo OKC 3.1 3.1 0.9
22 Lindy Waters III OKC 2.8 1.2 0.6
23 Nate Williams HOU 2.5 1.4 0.6
24 Mike Muscala OKC 2.5 1.2 0.4
25 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.0 1.9 0.3
26 Olivier Sarr OKC 2.0 1.2 0.3
27 Keyontae Johnson OKC 1.3 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.