NBA games

DET @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
91–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET2520212591
MIN30173128106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home MIN
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 29 32 1 2
Malachi Flynn 19 14 5 0
Jalen Duren S 25 11 11 4
James Wiseman 23 11 4 0
Chimezie Metu S 32 8 7 2
Marcus Sasser S 33 7 4 5
Troy Brown Jr. 30 5 3 2
Tosan Evbuomwan S 29 3 4 0
Jared Rhoden 2 0 1 0
Buddy Boeheim 2 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Naz Reid S 31 21 10 4
Jaden McDaniels S 28 20 4 0
Kyle Anderson 23 14 4 5
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 25 11 1 2
Rudy Gobert S 34 11 14 4
Mike Conley S 25 9 0 7
Anthony Edwards S 29 9 3 5
Jordan McLaughlin 14 8 1 0
Luka Garza 2 2 0 0
Monte Morris 14 1 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mike Conley · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Mike Conley makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
13%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
10%
3 Mike Conley MIN
9%
4 Jaden Ivey DET
9%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
8%
6 Jalen Duren DET
8%
7 James Wiseman DET
7%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
9 Troy Brown Jr. DET
6%
10 Naz Reid MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
41%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 27.1 7.0 6.1
2 Cade Cunningham DET 22.6 5.2 8.1
3 Naz Reid MIN 17.7 6.5 2.4
4 Jaden Ivey DET 16.1 4.0 4.1
5 Mike Conley MIN 15.4 3.2 5.0
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 13.5 12.1 1.9
7 Jalen Duren DET 13.4 10.8 2.0
8 James Wiseman DET 11.7 8.9 1.7
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN 11.7 4.8 1.7
10 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 10.8 2.9 2.3
11 Marcus Sasser DET 10.1 2.9 3.8
12 Kyle Anderson MIN 10.0 4.3 4.9
13 Evan Fournier DET 6.2 1.8 1.7
14 Monte Morris MIN 5.8 1.2 2.5
15 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 5.7 2.0 2.4
16 Tosan Evbuomwan DET 5.6 2.5 0.7
17 Malachi Flynn DET 4.9 1.7 1.1
18 Jared Rhoden DET 4.5 2.2 0.9
19 Chimezie Metu DET 4.4 2.9 1.2
20 Buddy Boeheim DET 4.4 1.5 0.6
21 Troy Brown Jr. DET 4.2 2.6 0.8
22 Luka Garza MIN 4.0 1.2 0.5
23 Stanley Umude DET 3.9 1.8 0.4
24 T.J. Warren MIN 3.8 1.6 0.7
25 Josh Minott MIN 1.9 0.8 0.4
26 Leonard Miller MIN 1.7 1.2 0.5
27 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 1.6 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.