NBA games

LAL @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
136–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL37323334136
MEM36253132124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home MEM
86% 14%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Rui Hachimura S 36 32 10 1
LeBron James S 35 23 14 12
D'Angelo Russell S 29 23 2 4
Taurean Prince 23 15 1 1
Jaxson Hayes S 31 14 7 1
Spencer Dinwiddie 25 14 7 1
Austin Reaves S 35 13 2 11
Max Christie 7 2 0 0
Maxwell Lewis 1 0 0 0
Colin Castleton 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 40 26 4 16
Jake LaRavia 32 25 6 4
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 35 17 9 3
Lamar Stevens 21 11 4 2
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 26 11 2 2
GG Jackson S 29 10 4 0
DeJon Jarreau 10 8 1 1
Santi Aldama S 27 6 3 1
Brandon Clarke 21 6 5 1
Maozinha Pereira 1 4 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Scotty Pippen Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:06 Q1
"Scotty Pippen Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 GG Jackson MEM
13%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
10%
3 Rui Hachimura LAL
10%
4 Santi Aldama MEM
9%
5 Desmond Bane MEM
8%
6 LeBron James LAL
8%
7 Austin Reaves LAL
8%
8 D'Angelo Russell LAL
8%
9 Ziaire Williams MEM
8%
10 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
19%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 27.5 7.3 9.3
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 23.8 6.7 3.6
3 Desmond Bane MEM 22.2 4.2 5.9
4 D'Angelo Russell LAL 21.8 4.1 6.9
5 Austin Reaves LAL 20.6 5.7 6.2
6 GG Jackson MEM 19.6 4.6 2.5
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 15.7 4.7 1.8
8 Santi Aldama MEM 14.0 6.8 3.1
9 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 14.0 3.7 5.6
10 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 13.9 5.7 6.2
11 Jake LaRavia MEM 12.2 4.8 2.2
12 Lamar Stevens MEM 11.0 4.6 1.3
13 Ziaire Williams MEM 10.1 3.4 1.9
14 Spencer Dinwiddie LAL 8.6 2.5 2.2
15 Taurean Prince LAL 8.2 3.4 1.1
16 DeJon Jarreau MEM 6.2 4.8 3.0
17 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.5 4.5 0.9
18 Cam Reddish LAL 5.2 2.1 0.8
19 Colin Castleton LAL 4.1 2.9 0.7
20 Max Christie LAL 4.0 1.8 0.8
21 Maozinha Pereira MEM 3.7 2.5 0.7
22 Harry Giles III LAL 1.8 0.8 0.4
23 Maxwell Lewis LAL 1.6 0.6 0.3
24 Skylar Mays LAL 1.6 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.