NBA games

IND @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
99–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND2320312599
CHI27372338125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home CHI
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Nembhard S 34 18 5 2
Pascal Siakam S 30 14 8 5
Tyrese Haliburton S 31 13 4 5
Myles Turner S 25 12 4 0
T.J. McConnell 18 12 1 4
Aaron Nesmith S 27 6 5 3
Isaiah Jackson 8 6 6 0
Jalen Smith 12 5 4 0
Obi Toppin 11 5 1 2
Kendall Brown 5 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 38 27 6 2
Nikola Vucevic S 29 22 12 2
Coby White S 35 18 7 2
Ayo Dosunmu S 34 17 3 4
Andre Drummond 18 14 11 3
Alex Caruso S 29 12 7 7
Torrey Craig 17 7 2 1
Javonte Green 19 5 4 1
Onuralp Bitim 2 3 0 1
Dalen Terry 13 0 2 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI
14%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
4 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
10%
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
6 Myles Turner IND
9%
7 Coby White CHI
8%
8 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
10 Ben Sheppard IND
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
32%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI 25.7 5.5 5.4
2 Pascal Siakam IND 23.8 9.7 3.6
3 Coby White CHI 21.3 4.2 4.9
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 20.8 10.5 3.7
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND 20.4 4.5 10.0
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 19.2 3.6 5.3
7 Myles Turner IND 16.0 6.3 1.8
8 T.J. McConnell IND 13.3 3.5 5.0
9 Alex Caruso CHI 12.6 4.1 4.3
10 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.6 3.8 1.8
11 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.6 2.8 3.4
12 Obi Toppin IND 8.3 4.1 1.3
13 Jalen Smith IND 8.0 5.2 1.2
14 Andre Drummond CHI 6.8 7.8 0.7
15 Isaiah Jackson IND 6.7 4.6 1.0
16 Torrey Craig CHI 6.4 2.9 1.5
17 Ben Sheppard IND 6.1 2.2 1.3
18 Onuralp Bitim CHI 5.6 1.9 1.0
19 Jevon Carter CHI 5.2 1.4 1.2
20 Doug McDermott IND 4.7 1.4 1.0
21 Jarace Walker IND 4.4 2.7 1.4
22 Dalen Terry CHI 4.4 2.2 1.3
23 Kendall Brown IND 2.6 1.1 0.7
24 Terry Taylor CHI 1.7 0.9 0.3
25 James Johnson IND 1.5 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.