NBA games

NY @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
145–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY45353134145
TOR33262121101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home TOR
86% 14%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles McBride S 40 29 3 7
Jalen Brunson S 29 26 4 7
Precious Achiuwa 27 19 12 3
Bojan Bogdanovic 16 18 1 2
Donte DiVincenzo S 33 16 5 2
Isaiah Hartenstein S 19 15 4 1
Mitchell Robinson 12 8 2 0
Shake Milton 10 7 3 2
Josh Hart S 34 7 6 10
Jericho Sims 7 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gradey Dick S 30 23 1 0
Gary Trent Jr. S 31 18 2 6
Garrett Temple 27 15 6 2
Javon Freeman-Liberty S 28 14 5 3
Kelly Olynyk S 27 13 7 8
Jordan Nwora 19 7 3 3
Jalen McDaniels 16 4 0 0
Bruce Brown 20 3 0 1
Mouhamadou Gueye 11 2 2 1
Kobi Simmons 24 2 1 6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Miles McBride · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Miles McBride makes 22-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
2 Kelly Olynyk TOR
10%
3 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
10%
4 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
10%
5 Josh Hart NY
9%
6 Donte DiVincenzo NY
9%
7 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR
9%
8 Ochai Agbaji TOR
8%
9 Mitchell Robinson NY
8%
10 Miles McBride NY
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
41%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 25.9 3.8 6.3
2 Donte DiVincenzo NY 19.8 4.6 4.1
3 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 19.0 4.0 2.0
4 Kelly Olynyk TOR 15.3 5.8 5.2
5 Miles McBride NY 12.6 2.9 2.7
6 Gradey Dick TOR 11.5 2.9 2.0
7 Bruce Brown TOR 11.2 4.2 3.5
8 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 10.2 9.1 2.6
9 Precious Achiuwa NY 10.1 8.3 2.0
10 Josh Hart NY 10.0 10.2 5.7
11 Ochai Agbaji TOR 9.4 4.1 1.8
12 Jordan Nwora TOR 8.6 3.3 1.2
13 Mitchell Robinson NY 7.7 8.7 1.3
14 Bojan Bogdanovic NY 7.4 1.9 1.4
15 Mamadi Diakite NY 6.0 2.8 0.7
16 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR 5.5 2.4 1.5
17 Chris Boucher TOR 5.2 3.1 0.6
18 Shake Milton NY 4.4 2.2 1.1
19 Jericho Sims NY 4.1 4.5 0.9
20 Mouhamadou Gueye TOR 3.0 2.2 0.5
21 Garrett Temple TOR 2.9 1.5 0.9
22 DaQuan Jeffries NY 2.6 1.0 0.6
23 Jalen McDaniels TOR 2.2 1.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.