NBA games

LAC @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
108107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC18282933108
PHI30202928107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home PHI
74% 26%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 34 22 10 4
Kawhi Leonard S 36 17 9 3
James Harden S 39 16 5 14
Terance Mann S 26 14 7 0
Ivica Zubac S 27 11 4 0
Norman Powell 29 11 3 2
Amir Coffey 22 10 0 3
Russell Westbrook 17 6 2 2
Mason Plumlee 7 1 3 0
P.J. Tucker 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 44 26 7 8
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 38 17 11 2
Buddy Hield 26 17 3 1
Tobias Harris S 38 14 7 2
Mo Bamba S 19 12 11 0
Nicolas Batum 28 9 4 3
Kyle Lowry S 22 7 0 1
Paul Reed 21 5 7 0
Cameron Payne 4 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyle Lowry · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Kyle Lowry makes 26-foot three pointer (Kelly Oubre Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
16%
2 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
10%
3 Tobias Harris PHI
10%
4 James Harden LAC
9%
5 Ivica Zubac LAC
9%
6 Kawhi Leonard LAC
9%
7 Paul George LAC
9%
8 Terance Mann LAC
7%
9 Nicolas Batum PHI
7%
10 Kyle Lowry PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
38%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.5 3.5 5.2
2 Paul George LAC 23.7 4.8 4.3
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC 22.9 5.4 3.7
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 18.8 6.0 2.9
5 James Harden LAC 18.1 4.9 9.1
6 Tobias Harris PHI 16.9 6.9 2.9
7 Norman Powell LAC 16.7 3.4 1.8
8 Ivica Zubac LAC 10.9 9.0 1.5
9 Terance Mann LAC 10.5 2.9 1.2
10 Paul Reed PHI 10.1 7.3 1.7
11 Cameron Payne PHI 10.0 2.1 3.5
12 Russell Westbrook LAC 9.6 2.9 3.3
13 Kyle Lowry PHI 9.5 2.9 4.0
14 Buddy Hield PHI 9.2 3.0 2.0
15 Amir Coffey LAC 7.4 3.2 1.6
16 Mo Bamba PHI 6.5 4.8 1.3
17 Nicolas Batum PHI 6.3 4.6 1.8
18 Bones Hyland LAC 6.1 1.8 2.6
19 Ricky Council IV PHI 5.0 1.4 0.8
20 Daniel Theis LAC 4.6 3.1 1.0
21 KJ Martin PHI 4.5 2.8 1.0
22 Brandon Boston LAC 4.0 1.8 0.5
23 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.7 2.9 0.7
24 D.J. Wilson PHI 3.7 1.7 1.0
25 Mason Plumlee LAC 3.0 3.7 0.9
26 Xavier Moon LAC 2.8 1.6 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.