NBA games

POR @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
106–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR29292820106
ATL26393520120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home ATL
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dalano Banton 37 31 5 9
Toumani Camara S 30 17 4 2
Scoot Henderson S 32 15 2 6
Duop Reath S 30 13 5 5
Ashton Hagans 16 10 2 3
Moses Brown 12 7 1 0
Rayan Rupert S 39 7 6 5
Jabari Walker 19 4 4 1
Justin Minaya 2 2 1 0
Kris Murray S 22 0 3 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dejounte Murray S 36 30 3 7
Garrison Mathews 22 21 2 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 37 16 4 5
De'Andre Hunter S 31 13 5 1
Clint Capela S 27 13 10 1
Dylan Windler 17 11 2 0
Vit Krejci S 33 7 4 3
Bruno Fernando 21 7 9 1
Trent Forrest 16 2 2 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dejounte Murray · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Dejounte Murray makes 25-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dejounte Murray ATL
13%
2 Trae Young ATL
11%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
4 Clint Capela ATL
9%
5 Scoot Henderson POR
8%
6 De'Andre Hunter ATL
8%
7 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL
7%
8 Rayan Rupert POR
7%
9 Kris Murray POR
7%
10 Toumani Camara POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
16%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Dejounte Murray ATL 25.9 5.0 9.4
2 Trae Young ATL 23.5 2.9 11.3
3 Jalen Johnson ATL 19.4 8.6 4.4
4 Dalano Banton POR 19.2 4.9 3.6
5 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 17.3 3.8 4.9
6 Scoot Henderson POR 16.4 3.8 5.4
7 De'Andre Hunter ATL 16.2 3.5 2.3
8 Clint Capela ATL 13.3 10.9 2.0
9 Jabari Walker POR 11.5 7.3 1.6
10 Toumani Camara POR 10.0 4.5 2.2
11 Kris Murray POR 9.9 4.7 1.8
12 Vit Krejci ATL 8.0 2.4 2.6
13 Duop Reath POR 7.6 2.5 0.9
14 Bruno Fernando ATL 7.4 6.5 1.5
15 Garrison Mathews ATL 7.0 2.0 1.2
16 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.9 2.9 1.8
17 Ashton Hagans POR 6.7 3.4 3.7
18 Wesley Matthews ATL 4.9 2.1 0.8
19 Rayan Rupert POR 4.5 2.0 1.7
20 Trent Forrest ATL 4.1 1.9 2.8
21 Moses Brown POR 3.6 2.9 0.6
22 Justin Minaya POR 2.9 1.4 0.6
23 Dylan Windler ATL 2.9 1.3 0.9
24 Ibou Badji POR 1.3 1.3 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.