NBA games

BKN @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
122–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
BKN3130312010122
WSH332137217119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home WSH
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 45 38 2 7
Dennis Schroder S 43 21 4 8
Mikal Bridges S 47 19 6 4
Nic Claxton S 37 17 13 1
Trendon Watford 19 12 3 2
Day'Ron Sharpe 14 8 5 0
Dorian Finney-Smith S 36 4 8 1
Jalen Wilson 8 2 0 0
Noah Clowney 11 1 4 0
Jacob Gilyard 4 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 45 38 7 8
Kyle Kuzma S 44 24 6 10
Marvin Bagley III 25 18 6 0
Deni Avdija S 38 17 12 3
Corey Kispert S 40 15 2 0
Anthony Gill 16 5 3 2
Johnny Davis 17 2 1 1
Richaun Holmes S 12 0 3 0
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 4 0 0 0
Jared Butler 21 0 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jordan Poole · Layup (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Jordan Poole makes driving layup (Kyle Kuzma assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cam Thomas BKN
14%
2 Deni Avdija WSH
10%
3 Kyle Kuzma WSH
8%
4 Dennis Schroder BKN
8%
5 Nic Claxton BKN
8%
6 Richaun Holmes WSH
8%
7 Jordan Poole WSH
7%
8 Johnny Davis WSH
7%
9 Corey Kispert WSH
7%
10 Jalen Wilson BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
49%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH 24.8 6.4 5.2
2 Cam Thomas BKN 24.2 5.0 4.2
3 Deni Avdija WSH 19.4 9.8 3.9
4 Jordan Poole WSH 19.2 3.5 5.7
5 Mikal Bridges BKN 18.2 4.1 4.1
6 Dennis Schroder BKN 18.0 3.8 6.4
7 Corey Kispert WSH 15.0 3.7 2.1
8 Nic Claxton BKN 13.1 10.7 2.2
9 Marvin Bagley III WSH 12.8 8.2 1.7
10 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 10.1 4.4 1.8
11 Richaun Holmes WSH 9.4 7.9 1.2
12 Jacob Gilyard BKN 7.5 2.0 3.8
13 Jared Butler WSH 7.5 2.5 4.6
14 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 6.2 2.3 0.8
15 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 5.9 5.1 1.6
16 Trendon Watford BKN 5.3 2.9 0.7
17 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 5.3 3.7 1.2
18 Jalen Wilson BKN 5.0 2.8 1.2
19 Johnny Davis WSH 4.5 2.0 1.0
20 Keon Johnson BKN 4.0 1.0 0.8
21 Noah Clowney BKN 3.8 2.1 0.8
22 Anthony Gill WSH 3.2 1.6 0.8
23 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 2.1 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.