NBA games

GS @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
101–93
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS27182729101
ORL1126292793

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home ORL
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Wiggins S 35 23 6 1
Stephen Curry S 35 17 4 10
Klay Thompson S 32 15 0 2
Moses Moody 24 12 5 3
Gary Payton II 19 10 1 1
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 33 8 14 3
Brandin Podziemski 21 6 9 1
Kevon Looney 15 4 7 0
Chris Paul 17 3 3 4
Gui Santos 6 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cole Anthony 32 26 7 4
Paolo Banchero S 32 15 8 5
Franz Wagner S 31 14 5 1
Jonathan Isaac 24 9 5 1
Wendell Carter Jr. S 19 7 6 0
Moritz Wagner 20 6 3 7
Anthony Black 15 6 1 1
Jalen Suggs S 25 4 1 2
Markelle Fultz S 16 4 1 0
Joe Ingles 24 2 2 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Wiggins · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Andrew Wiggins makes 5-foot hook shot (Draymond Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
18%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
14%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
13%
4 Andrew Wiggins GS
11%
5 Jalen Suggs ORL
11%
6 Klay Thompson GS
9%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
8 Draymond Green GS
8%
9 Caleb Houstan ORL
7%
10 Cole Anthony ORL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
35%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.3 6.2 6.8
2 Stephen Curry GS 21.3 4.5 4.2
3 Klay Thompson GS 18.6 3.2 2.6
4 Franz Wagner ORL 17.1 4.6 3.3
5 Jalen Suggs ORL 14.1 3.4 3.5
6 Andrew Wiggins GS 12.9 5.4 1.4
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 12.3 8.0 2.4
8 Cole Anthony ORL 11.6 4.0 2.3
9 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 10.8 7.2 1.5
10 Chris Paul GS 10.6 4.2 5.4
11 Draymond Green GS 10.1 7.6 5.7
12 Brandin Podziemski GS 8.9 4.5 3.0
13 Moritz Wagner ORL 7.9 3.3 1.2
14 Jonathan Isaac ORL 7.9 4.4 0.6
15 Moses Moody GS 5.9 2.6 0.7
16 Markelle Fultz ORL 5.4 2.6 1.6
17 Joe Ingles ORL 4.2 1.6 2.7
18 Gary Payton II GS 4.0 2.0 1.2
19 Lester Quinones GS 3.8 1.8 0.6
20 Anthony Black ORL 3.7 1.5 0.7
21 Gui Santos GS 3.6 2.1 0.6
22 Kevon Looney GS 3.0 2.8 0.8
23 Jerome Robinson GS 2.6 1.1 0.5
24 Goga Bitadze ORL 2.6 2.1 0.7
25 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.3 0.9 0.5
26 Admiral Schofield ORL 2.0 0.9 0.4
27 Dario Saric GS 1.9 1.0 1.0
28 Chuma Okeke ORL 1.7 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.