NBA games

CLE @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
111–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE43272615111
CHA33363118118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home CHA
72% 28%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jarrett Allen S 34 24 8 3
Max Strus S 24 19 4 0
Sam Merrill 24 17 3 2
Darius Garland S 37 14 5 12
Georges Niang 24 14 1 0
Evan Mobley S 31 10 6 6
Isaac Okoro S 25 7 2 0
Caris LeVert 30 4 3 8
Tristan Thompson 4 2 0 1
Craig Porter Jr. 6 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 35 31 6 1
Tre Mann S 29 17 1 8
Miles Bridges S 41 17 5 3
Grant Williams 31 16 7 5
Nick Richards S 22 11 10 0
Vasilije Micic S 34 11 1 12
Aleksej Pokusevski 23 10 7 1
Davis Bertans 23 5 1 0
JT Thor 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
4 Brandon Miller CHA
10%
5 Vasilije Micic CHA
10%
6 Darius Garland CLE
9%
7 Tre Mann CHA
8%
8 Nick Richards CHA
8%
9 Max Strus CLE
7%
10 Caris LeVert CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
30%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Miles Bridges CHA 21.5 6.9 3.8
2 Darius Garland CLE 21.2 3.7 6.6
3 Jarrett Allen CLE 18.1 11.1 2.6
4 Brandon Miller CHA 17.6 4.8 3.0
5 Evan Mobley CLE 16.5 9.5 4.1
6 Vasilije Micic CHA 16.1 3.4 5.2
7 Caris LeVert CLE 13.9 5.1 7.7
8 Georges Niang CLE 13.1 4.0 2.0
9 Grant Williams CHA 12.8 3.9 2.5
10 Tre Mann CHA 12.7 4.8 4.8
11 Max Strus CLE 11.1 2.8 4.2
12 Isaac Okoro CLE 10.2 3.6 1.9
13 Nick Richards CHA 9.6 9.3 1.1
14 Sam Merrill CLE 8.7 2.6 2.5
15 Marcus Morris Sr. CLE 8.1 2.9 1.3
16 Davis Bertans CHA 7.2 2.7 1.5
17 Aleksej Pokusevski CHA 5.8 3.0 1.6
18 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.6 2.2 1.8
19 Tristan Thompson CLE 4.4 4.4 1.3
20 Damian Jones CLE 4.3 2.8 0.6
21 Bryce McGowens CHA 3.9 1.8 0.7
22 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 3.7 1.2 1.0
23 Emoni Bates CLE 3.4 1.2 0.8
24 JT Thor CHA 3.0 1.4 0.7
25 Amari Bailey CHA 2.3 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.