NBA games

DAL @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
132–96
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL31273836132
SAC2825232096

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home SAC
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 32 28 11 6
Kyrie Irving S 35 24 3 8
Tim Hardaway Jr. 26 22 3 6
P.J. Washington S 32 14 13 2
Daniel Gafford S 22 10 4 3
Derrick Jones Jr. S 21 8 3 3
Jaden Hardy 4 7 0 0
Dante Exum 22 6 2 4
A.J. Lawson 5 6 1 0
Dereck Lively II 22 4 7 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 32 18 5 3
Keegan Murray S 33 17 3 1
Domantas Sabonis S 31 12 11 9
Malik Monk 27 10 4 3
Keon Ellis S 28 10 4 2
Harrison Barnes S 24 7 5 3
Mason Jones 5 6 1 1
Davion Mitchell 16 6 0 2
Alex Len 11 5 3 1
Chris Duarte 13 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Keegan Murray · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Keegan Murray makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (Domantas Sabonis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
15%
2 Kyrie Irving DAL
14%
3 Daniel Gafford DAL
11%
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC
10%
5 Keegan Murray SAC
10%
6 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
8%
8 Harrison Barnes SAC
8%
9 Keon Ellis SAC
7%
10 Luka Doncic DAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
30%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 30.5 10.0 9.3
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC 24.7 6.1 6.2
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.1 4.9 5.9
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 21.0 12.4 7.7
5 Malik Monk SAC 17.4 4.1 5.4
6 Daniel Gafford DAL 14.4 8.8 1.8
7 Keegan Murray SAC 13.4 5.9 1.9
8 Harrison Barnes SAC 12.3 3.2 1.5
9 P.J. Washington DAL 9.9 5.9 1.2
10 Keon Ellis SAC 8.2 3.4 1.7
11 Dereck Lively II DAL 7.6 5.1 0.8
12 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 7.4 2.3 1.6
13 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 6.7 2.5 1.0
14 Dante Exum DAL 6.7 2.2 2.6
15 Chris Duarte SAC 6.4 2.6 0.9
16 Davion Mitchell SAC 6.1 1.7 1.4
17 Josh Green DAL 4.9 2.4 1.0
18 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.3 1.3 1.0
19 Maxi Kleber DAL 4.1 2.8 1.1
20 JaVale McGee SAC 3.5 2.3 0.6
21 Alex Len SAC 3.5 2.8 0.8
22 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.2 1.4 0.6
23 A.J. Lawson DAL 2.5 1.3 0.4
24 Colby Jones SAC 2.5 1.5 0.9
25 Jalen Slawson SAC 2.4 1.4 0.6
26 Dwight Powell DAL 2.2 1.3 0.5
27 Markieff Morris DAL 1.6 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.