NBA games

OKC @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
119–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC33402323119
NO34243222112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home NO
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Williams S 34 26 2 5
Josh Giddey S 31 25 9 4
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 38 24 5 8
Chet Holmgren S 33 16 9 4
Cason Wallace 13 7 1 0
Kenrich Williams 18 6 3 2
Isaiah Joe 16 6 3 2
Luguentz Dort S 32 6 6 1
Jaylin Williams 14 3 7 2
Gordon Hayward 10 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 39 29 5 10
CJ McCollum S 41 23 6 5
Trey Murphy III S 39 16 6 2
Herbert Jones S 31 16 2 4
Jose Alvarado 16 8 3 3
Naji Marshall 23 7 4 1
Jonas Valanciunas S 11 6 6 1
Larry Nance Jr. 33 4 2 0
Jordan Hawkins 3 3 0 0
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 5 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Giddey · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Josh Giddey makes 10-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
14%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
4 Josh Giddey OKC
11%
5 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
6 CJ McCollum NO
10%
7 Jonas Valanciunas NO
9%
8 Herbert Jones NO
8%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
10 Trey Murphy III NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
52%
Jumper
13%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 26.2 5.8 5.5
2 Zion Williamson NO 24.5 8.4 5.2
3 Jalen Williams OKC 19.7 4.3 4.0
4 CJ McCollum NO 18.6 3.9 4.8
5 Trey Murphy III NO 16.9 5.5 2.8
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.2 8.5 1.9
7 Josh Giddey OKC 14.9 6.4 4.9
8 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.5 2.9 1.7
9 Herbert Jones NO 10.0 3.4 2.8
10 Naji Marshall NO 9.3 4.5 2.0
11 Larry Nance Jr. NO 7.2 4.6 2.0
12 Cason Wallace OKC 7.1 2.7 1.6
13 Jonas Valanciunas NO 7.0 6.6 1.5
14 Jose Alvarado NO 6.8 2.5 2.4
15 Gordon Hayward OKC 5.9 2.3 2.3
16 Isaiah Joe OKC 5.4 2.0 1.0
17 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.3 2.1 1.2
18 Kenrich Williams OKC 3.9 2.9 1.3
19 Jaylin Williams OKC 3.8 2.8 0.8
20 Jordan Hawkins NO 3.7 1.3 0.8
21 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 3.6 1.6 1.0
22 Matt Ryan NO 3.3 1.1 0.5
23 Bismack Biyombo OKC 3.2 3.1 1.0
24 Lindy Waters III OKC 3.0 1.4 0.6
25 Mike Muscala OKC 2.4 1.2 0.4
26 Olivier Sarr OKC 1.7 1.1 0.2
27 Cody Zeller NO 1.5 2.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.