NBA games

LAL @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
128–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5Q6T
LAL162632271611128
MIL32263013167124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home MIL
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 52 34 23 2
D'Angelo Russell S 50 29 7 12
Austin Reaves S 48 29 14 10
Rui Hachimura S 39 16 14 1
Taurean Prince 28 9 4 1
Spencer Dinwiddie S 42 7 2 4
Jaxson Hayes 17 2 4 0
Max Christie 7 2 1 0
Cam Reddish 7 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 46 29 21 11
Damian Lillard S 49 27 5 8
Malik Beasley S 40 21 3 1
Bobby Portis 30 18 13 0
Khris Middleton S 39 12 6 7
Brook Lopez S 33 9 6 1
Jae Crowder 18 5 2 0
Pat Connaughton 22 3 3 9
AJ Green 12 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Layup (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Giannis Antetokounmpo makes driving layup (Damian Lillard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
21%
2 Khris Middleton MIL
11%
3 Anthony Davis LAL
11%
4 Rui Hachimura LAL
9%
5 LeBron James LAL
8%
6 Austin Reaves LAL
8%
7 Damian Lillard MIL
7%
8 D'Angelo Russell LAL
7%
9 Brook Lopez MIL
6%
10 Spencer Dinwiddie LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
71%
Jumper
4%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 30.7 11.6 6.7
2 LeBron James LAL 27.1 7.2 9.2
3 Damian Lillard MIL 25.1 4.5 8.8
4 Anthony Davis LAL 22.8 13.1 3.9
5 D'Angelo Russell LAL 21.6 4.1 6.5
6 Austin Reaves LAL 19.7 4.7 6.3
7 Khris Middleton MIL 19.7 5.1 6.4
8 Bobby Portis MIL 18.0 8.7 1.9
9 Rui Hachimura LAL 15.9 4.0 1.8
10 Brook Lopez MIL 11.3 4.6 2.0
11 Malik Beasley MIL 10.5 3.8 1.6
12 Pat Connaughton MIL 8.2 2.8 1.8
13 Spencer Dinwiddie LAL 7.6 2.2 2.2
14 Taurean Prince LAL 7.4 3.2 1.2
15 Jae Crowder MIL 7.1 2.5 1.4
16 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.6 4.4 0.8
17 Cam Reddish LAL 5.2 2.1 0.7
18 AJ Green MIL 5.0 1.3 0.7
19 Max Christie LAL 4.0 1.8 0.8
20 TyTy Washington Jr. MIL 4.0 1.3 1.5
21 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 3.6 1.5 0.7
22 Danilo Gallinari MIL 3.3 1.3 0.8
23 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.8 1.6 1.1
24 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.7 1.2 0.8
25 Chris Livingston MIL 2.6 1.3 0.7
26 Harry Giles III LAL 1.8 0.9 0.4
27 Maxwell Lewis LAL 1.6 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.