NBA games

GS @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
113–92
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS24293228113
MIA2629201792

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home MIA
75% 25%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Klay Thompson S 31 28 5 2
Jonathan Kuminga S 32 18 7 3
Andrew Wiggins S 31 17 7 1
Stephen Curry S 31 17 2 6
Moses Moody 6 9 0 1
Kevon Looney 19 7 6 1
Brandin Podziemski 22 6 5 1
Gui Santos 2 5 0 0
Draymond Green S 28 4 9 8
Gary Payton II 14 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 39 24 9 5
Haywood Highsmith 30 15 6 2
Terry Rozier S 33 15 4 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 26 12 2 1
Nikola Jovic S 31 11 6 4
Caleb Martin 34 10 5 6
Alondes Williams 2 3 0 0
Patty Mills S 18 2 0 1
Cole Swider 2 0 0 0
Thomas Bryant 8 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Terry Rozier · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Terry Rozier makes 24-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Terry Rozier MIA
15%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
14%
3 Stephen Curry GS
12%
4 Jonathan Kuminga GS
12%
5 Andrew Wiggins GS
11%
6 Nikola Jovic MIA
9%
7 Draymond Green GS
9%
8 Patty Mills MIA
9%
9 Brandin Podziemski GS
8%
10 Klay Thompson GS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
34%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 20.9 5.5 4.1
2 Jonathan Kuminga GS 20.8 5.1 3.0
3 Terry Rozier MIA 19.3 4.8 4.8
4 Klay Thompson GS 18.0 3.1 3.1
5 Bam Adebayo MIA 17.4 11.3 3.2
6 Andrew Wiggins GS 11.4 4.8 1.6
7 Chris Paul GS 11.3 4.4 6.0
8 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 10.9 4.0 2.4
9 Caleb Martin MIA 10.8 4.3 2.0
10 Draymond Green GS 9.9 7.6 5.8
11 Brandin Podziemski GS 9.3 5.0 3.3
12 Nikola Jovic MIA 8.2 3.5 1.9
13 Moses Moody GS 6.6 3.1 0.8
14 Patty Mills MIA 5.8 1.7 1.8
15 Thomas Bryant MIA 5.7 3.7 0.8
16 Jamal Cain MIA 5.2 1.9 0.9
17 Delon Wright MIA 5.2 1.7 1.8
18 Haywood Highsmith MIA 5.0 2.0 1.2
19 Gary Payton II GS 4.4 2.3 1.5
20 Lester Quinones GS 3.5 1.8 0.5
21 Cole Swider MIA 3.4 1.2 0.7
22 Gui Santos GS 3.2 2.3 0.5
23 Alondes Williams MIA 2.9 1.1 0.6
24 Orlando Robinson MIA 2.8 2.0 0.9
25 Kevon Looney GS 2.4 2.3 0.7
26 Dario Saric GS 2.2 1.2 1.1
27 Jerome Robinson GS 1.7 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.