NBA games

IND @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
133–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND29363236133
LAC34282727116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home LAC
71% 29%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 31 31 4 2
Myles Turner S 26 24 7 0
Tyrese Haliburton S 31 21 1 9
T.J. McConnell 24 15 2 6
Andrew Nembhard S 24 9 0 2
Jalen Smith 14 9 5 1
Jarace Walker 29 8 4 7
Ben Sheppard S 21 7 5 0
Obi Toppin 25 7 4 1
Isaiah Jackson 2 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 33 26 1 3
Kawhi Leonard S 38 26 4 3
Norman Powell 31 22 3 0
Russell Westbrook 18 14 4 7
James Harden S 34 11 3 7
Ivica Zubac S 24 9 11 2
Terance Mann S 17 6 3 0
Amir Coffey 27 2 5 2
Bones Hyland 2 0 0 0
P.J. Tucker 12 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Myles Turner · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Myles Turner makes 11-foot two point shot (Andrew Nembhard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC
16%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
13%
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND
11%
4 James Harden LAC
11%
5 Myles Turner IND
11%
6 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
7 Paul George LAC
10%
8 Terance Mann LAC
8%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
10 Ben Sheppard IND
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
34%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paul George LAC 24.8 5.2 4.1
2 Pascal Siakam IND 23.1 10.0 3.8
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC 22.7 5.4 3.8
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.7 4.7 9.9
5 James Harden LAC 17.3 5.1 9.3
6 Myles Turner IND 15.6 6.1 1.8
7 Norman Powell LAC 15.3 3.4 1.9
8 T.J. McConnell IND 13.0 3.4 5.0
9 Ivica Zubac LAC 10.8 8.2 1.4
10 Terance Mann LAC 10.8 3.0 1.3
11 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.7 2.9 3.6
12 Obi Toppin IND 8.4 3.8 1.3
13 Jalen Smith IND 8.1 5.0 1.1
14 Russell Westbrook LAC 8.1 2.5 2.5
15 Amir Coffey LAC 7.6 2.9 1.5
16 Isaiah Jackson IND 6.7 4.4 1.0
17 Bones Hyland LAC 6.1 1.7 2.7
18 Ben Sheppard IND 6.0 2.2 1.3
19 Daniel Theis LAC 5.6 3.4 1.0
20 Brandon Boston LAC 5.0 2.1 0.6
21 Doug McDermott IND 4.9 1.3 1.0
22 Mason Plumlee LAC 3.9 4.1 0.9
23 Xavier Moon LAC 3.8 1.6 1.0
24 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.4 2.7 0.7
25 Jarace Walker IND 2.7 1.8 0.7
26 Kobe Brown LAC 2.6 1.6 0.5
27 Kendall Brown IND 1.5 0.6 0.4
28 James Johnson IND 1.4 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.