NBA games

PHI @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
96–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI2523202896
SAC31292325108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home SAC
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 35 29 3 2
Tobias Harris S 26 12 8 0
Ricky Council IV 9 10 2 1
D.J. Wilson 14 10 2 2
Cameron Payne 25 8 3 6
Paul Reed 23 8 8 2
Buddy Hield 32 7 5 3
Mo Bamba S 12 5 6 0
KJ Martin 19 4 5 1
Kyle Lowry S 25 3 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keegan Murray S 38 23 3 4
De'Aaron Fox S 37 23 8 5
Davion Mitchell 25 18 2 0
Domantas Sabonis S 33 11 13 10
Malik Monk 26 11 4 4
Alex Len 11 7 5 0
Harrison Barnes S 26 6 3 1
Keon Ellis S 24 5 2 1
Chris Duarte 13 4 0 0
Colby Jones 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Keegan Murray · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Keegan Murray makes 25-foot three pointer (Domantas Sabonis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
13%
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC
12%
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC
11%
4 Tobias Harris PHI
11%
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
10%
6 Harrison Barnes SAC
10%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
8 Buddy Hield PHI
7%
9 Kyle Lowry PHI
7%
10 Keon Ellis SAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
49%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 26.3 5.9 6.3
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.7 3.5 5.2
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 22.2 14.2 8.7
4 Malik Monk SAC 19.4 4.2 5.6
5 Tobias Harris PHI 18.4 7.4 3.0
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 18.1 6.1 2.7
7 Harrison Barnes SAC 12.7 3.3 1.6
8 Keegan Murray SAC 12.2 6.1 1.9
9 Cameron Payne PHI 10.3 2.3 3.0
10 Paul Reed PHI 9.6 7.7 1.5
11 Kyle Lowry PHI 9.5 3.0 4.2
12 Buddy Hield PHI 8.7 3.1 1.8
13 Keon Ellis SAC 7.9 3.3 1.6
14 Nicolas Batum PHI 6.3 5.1 1.7
15 Mo Bamba PHI 6.0 4.5 1.1
16 Chris Duarte SAC 6.0 2.8 1.1
17 Davion Mitchell SAC 5.7 1.6 1.4
18 KJ Martin PHI 4.7 2.8 1.0
19 Ricky Council IV PHI 4.3 1.4 0.6
20 Alex Len SAC 3.2 2.6 0.9
21 JaVale McGee SAC 2.7 2.3 0.3
22 D.J. Wilson PHI 2.4 1.3 0.6
23 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.3 0.9 0.4
24 Colby Jones SAC 1.6 1.2 0.7
25 Jalen Slawson SAC 1.5 1.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.