NBA games

DAL @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
115–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL37242727115
UTAH41252217105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home UTAH
77% 23%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 41 29 12 13
Kyrie Irving S 36 27 3 5
P.J. Washington S 35 16 4 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. 29 13 2 4
Daniel Gafford S 27 13 11 5
Derrick Jones Jr. S 18 6 1 0
Dereck Lively II 18 6 9 0
Dante Exum 16 3 1 3
Maxi Kleber 15 2 3 0
A.J. Lawson 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 34 34 7 2
John Collins S 31 21 11 2
Collin Sexton S 29 20 2 6
Walker Kessler 17 9 4 0
Taylor Hendricks S 29 8 6 1
Keyonte George S 35 6 5 6
Jordan Clarkson 33 4 4 8
Brice Sensabaugh 16 3 3 1
Luka Samanic 1 0 0 0
Omer Yurtseven 1 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Lauri Markkanen · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Lauri Markkanen makes 26-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
13%
2 Kyrie Irving DAL
12%
3 John Collins UTAH
11%
4 Keyonte George UTAH
10%
5 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
6 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
7 Collin Sexton UTAH
9%
8 Taylor Hendricks UTAH
7%
9 Luka Doncic DAL
7%
10 Johnny Juzang UTAH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
45%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
21%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 30.4 10.6 11.0
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.9 5.3 6.5
3 Collin Sexton UTAH 23.1 3.8 6.3
4 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 19.9 6.4 2.8
5 Keyonte George UTAH 19.8 3.9 5.3
6 John Collins UTAH 17.7 8.0 1.6
7 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 17.6 3.5 5.8
8 Daniel Gafford DAL 13.6 8.3 1.7
9 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 10.3 4.8 2.8
10 P.J. Washington DAL 10.1 5.8 1.4
11 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 9.6 6.4 1.1
12 Walker Kessler UTAH 9.3 9.3 1.3
13 Dereck Lively II DAL 8.2 4.9 1.0
14 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 8.1 2.8 1.0
15 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 6.5 1.7 1.4
16 Kris Dunn UTAH 6.4 2.6 2.9
17 Dante Exum DAL 6.1 1.9 2.5
18 Johnny Juzang UTAH 5.6 1.6 0.8
19 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 4.8 1.9 1.7
20 Micah Potter UTAH 4.1 2.1 0.6
21 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 3.9 2.9 0.4
22 Maxi Kleber DAL 3.8 2.7 1.3
23 Jaden Hardy DAL 3.8 0.8 1.1
24 Luka Samanic UTAH 3.2 1.9 0.5
25 Kira Lewis Jr. UTAH 3.1 1.3 1.0
26 A.J. Lawson DAL 2.3 1.0 0.4
27 Markieff Morris DAL 2.3 0.8 0.5
28 Dwight Powell DAL 1.8 1.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.