NBA games

MEM @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
103–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM24203227103
DEN39303029128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home DEN
15% 85%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lamar Stevens 23 19 3 2
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 26 17 2 4
GG Jackson S 30 15 3 2
Desmond Bane S 32 15 3 3
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 26 11 4 5
Trey Jemison III 22 8 5 1
Santi Aldama S 31 5 9 3
DeJon Jarreau 20 5 4 3
Maozinha Pereira 6 5 5 0
Jake LaRavia 23 3 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 31 29 11 8
Christian Braun S 22 17 5 2
Reggie Jackson S 24 15 1 8
Julian Strawther 22 14 2 1
Michael Porter Jr. S 22 11 4 2
Justin Holiday 22 11 3 2
Peyton Watson 22 10 9 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 26 9 2 2
Hunter Tyson 4 5 0 1
Collin Gillespie 21 4 4 7

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jokic · Layup (2 pts) · 11:02 Q1
"Nikola Jokic makes finger roll layup (Reggie Jackson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
14%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
3 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
10%
4 Desmond Bane MEM
9%
5 DeAndre Jordan DEN
9%
6 GG Jackson MEM
8%
7 Ziaire Williams MEM
8%
8 Santi Aldama MEM
8%
9 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
7%
10 Reggie Jackson DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
65%
Jumper
9%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.3 11.3 7.7
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 24.0 6.5 3.3
3 Desmond Bane MEM 21.1 4.4 5.7
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 19.7 6.1 2.2
5 GG Jackson MEM 18.6 4.8 2.3
6 Santi Aldama MEM 15.4 6.6 2.9
7 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 13.3 5.7 5.5
8 Jake LaRavia MEM 13.0 5.5 2.1
9 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 11.5 3.5 4.5
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.4 3.2 2.4
11 Ziaire Williams MEM 9.4 3.4 1.7
12 Lamar Stevens MEM 9.2 4.0 0.9
13 Christian Braun DEN 8.5 3.8 1.7
14 Trey Jemison III MEM 8.3 5.0 1.2
15 Reggie Jackson DEN 7.5 1.6 2.6
16 Peyton Watson DEN 6.5 3.7 1.2
17 Collin Gillespie DEN 5.3 1.6 1.1
18 Justin Holiday DEN 5.2 1.8 1.7
19 DeJon Jarreau MEM 5.1 4.7 2.7
20 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.7 3.9 0.7
21 Jay Huff DEN 1.6 0.8 0.4
22 Julian Strawther DEN 1.5 0.7 0.6
23 Braxton Key DEN 1.3 0.8 0.3
24 Hunter Tyson DEN 1.3 0.7 0.3
25 Jalen Pickett DEN 1.3 0.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.