NBA games

PHX @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
102–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX22282428102
SA29182829104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home SA
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 40 36 6 4
Kevin Durant S 36 29 8 6
Royce O'Neale 26 12 5 2
Bradley Beal S 30 9 5 6
Grayson Allen S 35 6 4 2
Jusuf Nurkic S 19 6 9 4
Drew Eubanks 21 2 6 4
Eric Gordon 24 2 2 0
Bol Bol 8 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 35 26 4 7
Jeremy Sochan S 36 26 18 1
Zach Collins S 30 18 5 3
Keldon Johnson 31 14 3 5
Cedi Osman 15 7 2 0
Julian Champagnie S 20 6 0 0
Blake Wesley 21 5 2 3
Tre Jones S 27 2 3 4
Malaki Branham 7 0 0 0
Dominick Barlow 18 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Booker · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Devin Booker makes 16-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
14%
2 Kevin Durant PHX
13%
3 Devin Vassell SA
13%
4 Bradley Beal PHX
13%
5 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
11%
6 Jeremy Sochan SA
10%
7 Grayson Allen PHX
10%
8 Tre Jones SA
9%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
10 Keldon Johnson SA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
57%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 27.0 5.6 6.9
2 Kevin Durant PHX 26.1 6.7 4.1
3 Bradley Beal PHX 20.8 4.4 7.2
4 Devin Vassell SA 19.2 4.3 5.1
5 Grayson Allen PHX 16.6 3.6 3.5
6 Keldon Johnson SA 15.5 5.5 1.9
7 Jeremy Sochan SA 13.8 7.2 3.7
8 Tre Jones SA 12.3 4.0 7.0
9 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 10.7 10.9 3.9
10 Malaki Branham SA 9.7 1.9 2.0
11 Zach Collins SA 9.4 5.0 1.7
12 Eric Gordon PHX 9.3 2.1 2.1
13 Royce O'Neale PHX 8.0 4.5 2.6
14 Julian Champagnie SA 7.0 2.6 1.6
15 Bol Bol PHX 6.3 3.5 0.8
16 Drew Eubanks PHX 5.4 4.7 0.6
17 Blake Wesley SA 5.4 2.0 2.5
18 Dominick Barlow SA 5.3 3.6 1.3
19 Cedi Osman SA 5.2 2.2 1.0
20 Thaddeus Young PHX 5.1 3.7 1.3
21 Josh Okogie PHX 5.0 2.3 1.3
22 Devonte' Graham SA 3.8 1.6 0.8
23 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.5 1.9 0.7
24 Nassir Little PHX 2.9 1.4 0.6
25 David Roddy PHX 2.6 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.