POR @ HOU
NBA
Toyota Center (Houston)
·Final
92–110
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POR | 25 | 26 | 20 | 21 | 92 |
| HOU | 28 | 19 | 33 | 30 | 110 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR
away
home
HOU
22%
78%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalano Banton | 39 | 28 | 11 | 5 |
| Scoot Henderson S | 25 | 15 | 3 | 4 |
| Toumani Camara S | 35 | 12 | 5 | 0 |
| Rayan Rupert S | 23 | 9 | 4 | 1 |
| Ashton Hagans | 24 | 8 | 4 | 3 |
| Duop Reath S | 24 | 8 | 4 | 0 |
| Jabari Walker | 26 | 7 | 5 | 0 |
| Kris Murray S | 31 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| Moses Brown | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Justin Minaya | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Jalen Green ·
Layup (2 pts) · 11:51 Q1
"Jalen Green makes 2-foot layup (Dillon Brooks assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Jalen Green
HOU
15%
2
Scoot Henderson
POR
11%
3
Amen Thompson
HOU
11%
4
Jabari Smith Jr.
HOU
10%
5
Rayan Rupert
POR
9%
6
Dillon Brooks
HOU
9%
7
Kris Murray
POR
9%
8
Fred VanVleet
HOU
9%
9
Toumani Camara
POR
9%
10
Duop Reath
POR
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
39%
Jumper
9%
Layup
36%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jalen Green | HOU | 26.2 | 5.4 | 4.0 |
| 2 | Fred VanVleet | HOU | 19.6 | 4.1 | 9.9 |
| 3 | Dalano Banton | POR | 19.2 | 4.6 | 3.6 |
| 4 | Scoot Henderson | POR | 16.3 | 3.8 | 5.2 |
| 5 | Amen Thompson | HOU | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.4 |
| 6 | Jabari Smith Jr. | HOU | 13.3 | 6.7 | 1.8 |
| 7 | Jabari Walker | POR | 11.2 | 7.0 | 1.6 |
| 8 | Dillon Brooks | HOU | 10.8 | 2.9 | 2.1 |
| 9 | Kris Murray | POR | 10.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 |
| 10 | Toumani Camara | POR | 9.4 | 4.6 | 2.1 |
| 11 | Jock Landale | HOU | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.9 |
| 12 | Duop Reath | POR | 8.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 13 | Jeff Green | HOU | 7.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 14 | Matisse Thybulle | POR | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
| 15 | Ashton Hagans | POR | 6.0 | 3.1 | 3.4 |
| 16 | Aaron Holiday | HOU | 5.6 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| 17 | Rayan Rupert | POR | 4.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| 18 | Jae'Sean Tate | HOU | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 19 | Moses Brown | POR | 3.6 | 3.2 | 0.6 |
| 20 | Reggie Bullock Jr. | HOU | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 21 | Nate Williams | HOU | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 22 | Boban Marjanovic | HOU | 3.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 23 | Justin Minaya | POR | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 24 | Ibou Badji | POR | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.