NBA games

POR @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
92110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR2526202192
HOU28193330110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home HOU
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dalano Banton 39 28 11 5
Scoot Henderson S 25 15 3 4
Toumani Camara S 35 12 5 0
Rayan Rupert S 23 9 4 1
Ashton Hagans 24 8 4 3
Duop Reath S 24 8 4 0
Jabari Walker 26 7 5 0
Kris Murray S 31 4 6 1
Moses Brown 8 1 1 0
Justin Minaya 5 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 40 27 6 3
Jock Landale S 32 17 9 2
Fred VanVleet S 26 15 3 4
Amen Thompson S 28 12 9 2
Dillon Brooks S 29 11 2 1
Aaron Holiday 24 11 3 4
Jae'Sean Tate 21 8 4 2
Jeff Green 24 6 4 1
Reggie Bullock Jr. 15 3 5 0
Nate Williams 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Green · Layup (2 pts) · 11:51 Q1
"Jalen Green makes 2-foot layup (Dillon Brooks assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Green HOU
15%
2 Scoot Henderson POR
11%
3 Amen Thompson HOU
11%
4 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
5 Rayan Rupert POR
9%
6 Dillon Brooks HOU
9%
7 Kris Murray POR
9%
8 Fred VanVleet HOU
9%
9 Toumani Camara POR
9%
10 Duop Reath POR
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
39%
Jumper
9%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green HOU 26.2 5.4 4.0
2 Fred VanVleet HOU 19.6 4.1 9.9
3 Dalano Banton POR 19.2 4.6 3.6
4 Scoot Henderson POR 16.3 3.8 5.2
5 Amen Thompson HOU 13.3 7.6 2.4
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.3 6.7 1.8
7 Jabari Walker POR 11.2 7.0 1.6
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 10.8 2.9 2.1
9 Kris Murray POR 10.6 5.3 2.2
10 Toumani Camara POR 9.4 4.6 2.1
11 Jock Landale HOU 8.4 4.7 1.9
12 Duop Reath POR 8.3 2.7 1.0
13 Jeff Green HOU 7.0 2.6 1.0
14 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.9 3.0 1.7
15 Ashton Hagans POR 6.0 3.1 3.4
16 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.6 1.4 1.7
17 Rayan Rupert POR 4.7 2.2 1.5
18 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.3 2.6 1.2
19 Moses Brown POR 3.6 3.2 0.6
20 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.3 2.2 0.7
21 Nate Williams HOU 3.2 1.8 0.7
22 Boban Marjanovic HOU 3.1 2.3 0.7
23 Justin Minaya POR 1.9 1.0 0.4
24 Ibou Badji POR 1.4 1.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.